Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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644
FXUS64 KEWX 230928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
428 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Subtropical Ridge extends from Northern Mexico across Southern Texas
to along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Surface low pressure in
the Plains maintains a moist southerly lower level flow. Well above
normal temperatures continue. Moisture depth decreases a little with
PWs falling to around 1.5 inches. This should allow dewpoints to mix
out slightly better than yesterday. However, we still expect maximum
heat index values of 105 to 107 during the afternoon hours, except
lower in the Hill Country. Some spots could flirt with heat advisory
levels of 108 to 110 for an hour or two. A fairly tight pressure
gradient will generate breezy winds allowing for some relief from the
heat and humidity. There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms
developing along surface boundaries over Northern and West Central
Texas this afternoon into evening to approach the Hill Country and
our Central Texas counties tonight before dissipation due to
favorable storm motion vectors. However, for now, have kept mention
out of the forecast as nocturnal timing favors the Ridge and capping
dissipating the activity prior to reaching South Central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
An upper level trough moving to the east across the Plains and an
inverted trough moving to the west across Mexico/far south Texas will
create a weakness in the Ridge over Texas on Monday. This allows
deeper moisture from the Bay of Campeche (PWs increasing to near 2
inches) to surge back into our area. Heating and weaker capping
should enable isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday.
The deeper moisture moves away with no rain expected on Tuesday. A
minor surge of deeper moisture on Wednesday into Thursday may allow
for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains to
Highway 77 corridor mainly during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, the
Subtropical Ridge remains the dominant feature maintaining slightly
above normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  77  97  77  95 /   0  -    0  -   20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  77  96  77  95 /   0  10  -   -   20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76  97  76  95 /   0  -    0  -   20
Burnet Muni Airport            97  75  95  75  94 /   0  10   0  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  78 102  78  99 /   0   0   0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  76  97  77  95 /  -   10  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport            100  76  99  76  96 /   0   0   0  -   20
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76  97  77  95 /   0  -    0  -   20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  77  95  78  94 /   0  -   10  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77  97  77  95 /   0   0   0  -   20
Stinson Muni Airport          100  77  99  77  96 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...04



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