Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231753
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1153 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

.AVIATION...
MVFR stratus deck currently across the Hill Country and portions of
the I-35 corridor is forecast to gradually rise to VFR through the
afternoon. MVFR and IFR ceilings are forecast to re-develop 03Z-06Z
across portions of the Hill Country and along and east of I-35. A
Pacific cold front is also forecast to move into the Hill Country
06Z-09Z and along and east of I-35 09Z-12Z. A broken band of SHRAs is
forecast to develop ahead of the front, potentially impacting
AUS/SAT/SSF. There is uncertainty as to whether isolated TSRAs will
develop, and this will be conditional all whether or not a capping
inversion erodes ahead of the front. The front should clear east of
the I-35 terminals around 12Z with improving conditions to VFR
through the morning hours on Monday. Wind from the S to SE this
afternoon and evening, with some occasional gusts around 20KT through
the afternoon. Winds should veer SW ahead of the cold front late
evening, and turn NW behind the cold front early Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Current water vapor imagery shows the center of the mid level low
over northwestern Arizona with the southern stream trough axis
extending southward into the Gulf of California. A southerly, low
level warm air advection pattern has set up over South Central Texas
in response, and this will only continue to ramp up as we head
through the morning hours and into Sunday afternoon. Morning low
temperatures will be much warmer compared to the previous several
nights thanks to the increased moisture and cloud cover. Widespread
stratus will develop this morning, and there could be some patchy
fog and drizzle developing toward sunrise for portions of the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor. For today, expect mostly cloudy to
overcast skies (some partial clearing later in the day across the
Rio Grande Plains), southerly winds, and high temperatures back to
seasonal normals. There could be a few patchy light showers this
afternoon and early evening for the Austin area and points east.

By late tonight, the center of the 500 mb low will be over the TX
and OK Panhandles and will move northeast into OK/MO/KS by early
Monday morning. This will send a Pacific cold front through the
region from northwest to southeast Monday morning. Several of the
high res models and ensembles continue to suggest the potential for
showers developing along the front. They also indicate the potential
for a thunderstorm or two given the elevated instability, although
there will be a cap in place that would have to be overcome. Any
accumulated rainfall should remain below a quarter of an inch. The
front should be completely through the region by 10 AM Monday, and
breezy northwesterly winds will come behind the front. Despite the
frontal passage, high temps on Monday will be warmer than today,
with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations (upper 70s
across the Rio Grande Plains), with skies becoming mostly clear
behind the front.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Dry and cool weather conditions are expected for Monday evening into
Tuesday in the wake of the Pacific frontal passage. Winds become
light and variable on Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. The
second cold front comes dry but with a much cooler air mass. Also,
it brings breezy conditions with strong winds out of the north
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The cold air sits over the area with
lows in the lower 30s across the Hill Country to lower 40s across
the coastal plains. Highs temperatures are forecast to range from
the lower 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday. Winds become light and
variable Wednesday night into Thursday morning under clear skies
providing a nice setup for radiational cooling and allowing lows to
drop to the mid 20s to mid 30s areawide.

After a cold morning on Thursday, temperatures bounce back into the
60s under sunny skies. Another cool night is in store for Friday
morning, however, a warming trend is forecast for Friday afternoon into
next weekend with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  74  47  66  38 /  60  10   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  75  41  67  38 /  60  10   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  76  45  70  38 /  60  10   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            53  71  42  62  33 /  30   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  79  46  71  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  73  41  63  36 /  50  -    0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             56  78  43  73  38 /  40   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  75  43  69  38 /  60  10   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  75  47  69  39 /  60  30   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  77  46  70  40 /  50  10   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           60  78  47  72  41 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Runyen
Long-Term...05
Decision Support...KCW



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