Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
829
FXUS64 KEWX 201744
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
Light south breezes should be mainly below 12 knots, but there could
be some shiftiness that could impact flight operations around SAT
with speeds still over 8 knots at times. Less wind is expected late
tonight, and this could lead to an early morning without mvfr cigs
for most of the area. Will continue a 2500 ft cig for a few hours
around SAT/SSF for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings have set in at SAT/SSF, but only briefly impacted AUS
earlier this morning. Think that the MVFR cigs will stick around at
SAT/SSF for another 2 to 3 hours, while AUS should remain VFR with
only some scattered clouds. DRT is the bigger question this morning
as MVFR cigs have built westward this morning and have impacted
Rocksprings (ECU) and Kerrville (ERV). While MOS does not indicate
any ceilings at DRT for the rest of the morning have gone with
persistence and included a TEMPO group at DRT for some MVFR ceilings
between 13z and 16z based on the MVFR deck that developed there
yesterday and the proximity of the MVFR deck this morning. Winds that
are mostly light and southerly this morning should increase to around
10 knots by this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The Subtropical Ridge extending from northwestern Mexico to the
Southern Plains into the central Gulf Coast states weakens slightly
as we progress through the middle of this week as weak mid level
impulses move east over the top of it. Above normal temperatures
continue, although a degree or two of "cooling" is expected as the
thermal ridge weakens slightly. The "cooling" and daytime mixing will
allow for only mildly elevated afternoon and early evening heat
index values. A weak mid level impulse riding west under the Ridge
along with the seabreeze and insolation will generate isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, possibly as far west as
I-35/I-37. Otherwise, subsidence keeps most areas rain free, however,
areas near the Coastal Plains can expect isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Monday)...
By Friday, the Ridge weakens enough for a shear axis to develop over
Texas. This allows the showers and thunderstorms to spread across
more of our area as moisture deepens slightly. The previously noted
impulse moving north from the Bay of Campeche is shown to pass well
east of our area and with no lifting mechanisms other than the shear
axis, the seabreeze, and insolation, only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly during the late morning through
evening evening hours Friday through Monday. However, there remains
a good amount of uncertainty for this time period. Occasional model
runs have indicated mesoscale processes developing into a stronger
inverted trough over our area. Also, a tropical low moving parallel
to the west coast of Mexico may add to the moisture. Either of these
features could increase the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will gradually trend closer to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  77 101  77 101 /  10   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  76  99  75  99 /  20   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  74  99  75  99 /  10   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  77 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  77  98  76  98 /  10   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport            101  74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75  99  75  99 /  10   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  77  99  76  99 /  20   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  77  99  77  99 /  10   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport          101  77 100  76 100 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.