Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 201137
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
637 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
There is a small chance that SAT/SSF could see a brief ifr cig in the
next 1-2 hours, but will stick with prevailing mvfr cigs at the I-35
sites for the short term. Clouds are still expanding in coverage, but
will continue to expect the low cloud deck to stay just east of DRT
before the deck begins to break up into scattered vfr level cumulus.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible near I-35 this
afternoon, but will assume most of this activity remains to the
distant east. The cold front is expected to arrive from 10Z to 13Z at
the 4 sites with DRT seeing a shift first and perhaps a stray shower
near the front. The other 3 sites are expected to see a shift around
12Z or 13Z with a band of showers and perhaps a few storms with the
initial fropa. Models depict a fairly narrow time range for the
heavier activity, so will avoid addressing intensities for now and
focus on the time window for thunder potential. Decreasing rain
impacts should begin by 15Z around San Antonio, and around 16Z at
AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Previous shower activity along a weak boundary has since dissipated
and all that is left is some cloud cover in the eastern CWA. This
cloud cover is expected to stick around for much of the day with some
continued low chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the
southeastern CWA through the afternoon hours ahead of our next cold
front. High temperatures today should not be quite as high as
yesterday given the increased cloud cover, but temperatures are
expected to be well above normal once again with highs today in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

An upper level trough axis is passing through the Rockies at the
present time and as it traverses across the Central Plains today, a
cold front will push into the Southern Plains. This front is expected
to reach our northern counties 9z or 4am tonight. Models continue to
show a thin/broken line of convection along the front that will
likely bring a decent areal coverage of rain to the region as the
front moves south through the area. Some of the storms in our
northern CWA could be strong with brief strong wind gusts and small
hail being the main threats. The ECMWF remains the most bullish on
rainfall amounts, while the GFS and high-res models keep average
totals generally below a third of an inch. Rainfall should be ended
by the afternoon hours on Monday as drier air filters into the area.
Temperatures behind the front will drop 10-20 degrees with highs
Monday in the 70s and 80s under increasing sunshine. With the drier
air moving in behind the front and temperatures in the 80s for the
western CWA, afternoon humidity values will drop to near 13-25
percent for locations west of Highway 281 and elevated fire weather
conditions are expected Monday afternoon as north winds remain around
10-15 mph. However, if this area does pick up beneficial rainfall
with the front, this would mitigate any increase in fire potential.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Winds will weaken by Monday night and lows will reach the 50s for
most of the area. The cooler weather will stick around Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs remaining in the 70s and 80s. The next cold
front is expected to arrive Thursday or Thursday night with some
slight timing differences between the medium range guidance. The
ECMWF/Canadian are slower and deeper with the trough than the GFS
which would mean a more slower timing with the lift/front. There will
be another decent chance of rain with this front, but if the slower
and deeper system the ECMWF/Canadian verifies, we could see a
widespread soaking rain out of this system. Regardless, this front is
expected to be slightly stronger than tonight`s front with lows next
Saturday likely in the 40s areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  65  77  54  79 /  20  60  40   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  66  78  53  79 /  20  60  50   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  67  79  53  79 /  20  40  40   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  61  75  50  77 /  10  70  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  65  85  55  84 /   0  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  64  76  51  79 /  20  70  40   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             91  70  84  54  84 /  10  40  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  66  78  53  79 /  20  40  40   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  72  79  53  79 /  30  40  70  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  69  80  56  81 /  20  40  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  71  80  56  81 /  20  30  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire


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