Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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719
FXUS64 KEWX 251251
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
751 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 of a mile or less in the
southeastern portions of the CWA. Have issued a dense fog advisory
until 9 AM to cover the continued threat of the reduced visibilities.
Updated products have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...
Low end MVFR conditions continue this morning along the I-35
corridor. MVFR cigs will continue through mid-morning, then lift and
scatter into VFR by late morning. Out west at DRT, clouds are
beginning to develop and we have mentioned only SCT low clouds for a
few hours this morning. Some afternoon convection is possible east
of I-35, but any activity should remain clear of our TAF sites. Low
clouds will develop early Saturday morning, leading to another round
of MVFR cigs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Not a lot of change to the forecast as the synoptic pattern remains
largely unchanged over the course of the day. Most of South Central
Texas will be sitting under 586-589 dm H5 heights due to ridging over
Mexico and up through the lee of the Rockies. Over the last several
days, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed well east of
the I-35 corridor. Hi-res models are trending drier and drier with
each day and this afternoon will likely result in much less coverage
of convection. Having said that, an uncapped environment will exist
from the I-35 corridor and east with an unstable atmosphere enough to
pop off a storm or two possibly. Thus, kept mention of iso T for the
Coastal Plain this afternoon ending by 00Z.

Some morning fog will be possible in the southeast zones by early
tomorrow morning where dew Ts will probably stay in the low 70s
overnight and dewpoint depressions decrease. This should mix out
quickly by mid morning as temperatures warm quickly through the
morning and reach the 90s by around noon. Highs along the Rio Grande
will likely exceed triple digits with heat indices at or above 100
for many locations Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
More hot and dry conditions expected through the next several days.
No PoPs were included in any grid after today. The aforementioned
ridge axis will shift east with the axis positioned over the region
by Monday. This ridge will serve to keep any and all effects of
the potential tropical disturbance in the Gulf well east of the
state.

By Wednesday, the ridge strengthens further allowing for possibly the
hottest day of the next 7. From San Antonio and southwest, triple
digit highs are currently forecast. Dew Ts luckily should stay just
low enough to avoid heat advisory criteria through much of the week,
but nevertheless, the messaging for the week should certainly be heat
safety.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  73  96  73  97 /  10   0  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  72  94  71  96 /  10   0  -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  71  95  70  96 /  10   0  -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  71  95  71  96 /  10   0  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  73 103  75 104 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  72  95  72  96 /  10   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  71  98  70  99 /  -    0  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  71  96  71  97 /  10   0  -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  72  93  72  95 /  10   0  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  72  97  73  98 /  10   0  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  73  98  73  98 /  10   0  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for De Witt-Fayette-
Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca-Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire



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