Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 201249
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
749 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.MORNING UPDATE...
Per latest radar trends and short term model depictions, increased
PoPs through 18Z for the Hill Country and Austin areas as well as the
Edwards Plateau. Outflow boundary is progressing southward faster
than models anticipated and will be arriving in the northern CWA in
the next hour or so which should increase shower and isolated storm
coverage across the northern half of the CWA throughout the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will settle over the region within the next hour or so.
Clouds should lift late this morning or early afternoon. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon.
Convection will lower visibility to MVFR. There is a chance showers
and thunderstorms continue into the evening, but probability is too
low to include anything in the TAFs. Ceilings will lower again
overnight tonight into Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A mid level impulse has generated showers and isolated thunderstorms
that has moved east of I-35. This activity exits to our east by
sunrise. An outflow boundary is surging south across northern and
western Texas and will move into our area later this morning as a
series of mid level impulses move across. Upward forcing due to the
boundary and impulses, as well as, heating allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop as the day progresses. This activity will
generate additional boundaries, as well as, the impulses aloft to
maintain the showers and thunderstorms through Monday as a moist
airmass lingers. With time, most activity shifts to the Rio Grande
Plains where showers and thunderstorms coming off the Serranias del
Burro of Mexico and the Big Bend and Davis Mountains of southwestern
Texas could form into clusters and move across that area. High CAPE
noted on forecast soundings indicate the possibility of strong to
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threats
mainly during the afternoon into evening hours today and again on
Monday. A few storms could be slower moving and produce locally heavy
downpours. Daytime temperatures will be cooler due to the clouds and
rain.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A mid and upper level ridge begins to build over our area on Tuesday
with increasing convective inhibition due to warming mid level
temperatures. Some deeper moisture lingers to allow isolated showers
and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains due to the seabreeze and
over the lower Pecos Valley of Val Verde due to proximity to activity
coming off the higher terrain of Mexico and southwestern Texas. For
Wednesday through Saturday, the ridging aloft keeps convection out of
the forecast. However, cannot rule out very isolated showers and
thunderstorms over those two areas. Temperatures will warm back to
well above normal mid to late week into next weekend. The next
chance of rain is next Saturday night when a front moves through our
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  70  89  70  91 / 100  30  30  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  70  89  69  91 /  90  30  30  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  70  88  69  90 /  80  30  30  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            84  68  86  67  88 / 100  30  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  71  88  71  90 /  70  40  50  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  69  88  69  90 / 100  30  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             89  71  88  69  92 /  80  30  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  70  88  69  90 /  90  30  30  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  90  71  91 /  50  30  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  72  88  71  90 /  80  30  30  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           89  72  89  71  93 /  70  30  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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