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255
FXUS64 KEWX 212357 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
657 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area airports through at least
06Z Fri. South winds of 7 to 11 knots are forecast to prevail through
this period. Increased moisture/clouds are expected overnight to
spread across South Central Texas with MVFR and IFR cigs along the
I-35 terminals from 07Z through 17Z Fri. Area forecast sounding
outputs from the RAP13 and NAM12 want to bring LIFR conditions for
few hours around 12Z for KAUS. However, both GFS-MOS and GFS LAMP
guidance are not that aggressive and have decided to stay with
lowest cigs at IFR category for this forecast package. Southerly
winds continue overnight into Friday morning averaging 4 to 5 knots
along the I-35 sites. VFR conditions are expected to return by 18Z
with southerly winds around 10 knots.

VFR conditions are expected across KDRT for much of the forecast
period with MVFR cigs anticipated around dawn to last few hours. VFR
conditions should be in place around noon or short after during the early
Friday afternoon period. East-southeast wind flow is forecast to
prevail across KDRT with speeds of 8 to 11 knots through the forecast
package.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Any final remnants of showers left over from this week`s system will
be coming to an end this evening as high pressure continues to
build in from the west. Skies clear out across the entire region
tomorrow and temperatures return to above normal. High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 90s for the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas with around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Elevated
relative humidities will yield heat indices from around 100 to 107
degrees across the region Friday afternoon. Friday night will be
partly cloudy with overnight lows only dropping to the mid to upper
70s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday will be similar to Friday, with heat indices a bit higher
across the board, with Austin and San Antonio experiencing heat
indices of 103 to 106 and the Rio Grande and coastal plains reaching
up to 106-109 degrees. These values will be nearing heat advisory
criteria, so trends will be closely monitored. Southerly winds will
also increase this weekend, with sustained winds up to 15 mph.

Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler on Sunday as the upper
high slides to the east of the region. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
continue to show an inverted trough making its way into south Texas
Sunday into Wednesday. The ECMWF is a bit more bullish on this
feature, and as such is a bit more optimistic about POPs across the
eastern portions of south central Texas than the GFS. For now, have
maintained 20% POPs for the coastal plains Monday through Thursday.
However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected from
these.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday through Thursday,
with high temperatures in the mid 90s for the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas with upper 90s to 100 along the Rio Grande. These
temperatures will still be running a couple degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  97  76  96  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            73  97  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 100  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  97  76  96  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             75  99  76 100  76 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  97  75  97  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  77  95  78 /  -   10   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB