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000
FXUS64 KEWX 160400
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1000 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.UPDATE... /STRONGER COLD FRONT ACCOUNTED FOR OVER CENTRAL TX/
All the model MOS guidances were trending cooler with each run over
Central TX, but the 00Z NAM arrived with a sharp decrease in daytime
max temps as the shorter range models all suggested a lot more cloud
cover to the east. This is confirmed on satellite where a area of
low cloudiness is surging north along and east of the Hwy 77
corridor. The resulting new forecast paints a high-contrast max
temperature gradient over our counties from west to east for
Saturday. Frontal timing has moved forward slightly, but the new
model runs show a sharper drop in temps and dew points immediately
behind the front. Hopefully the 00Z NAM is a bit overdone, or the
overnight shift will have to make further adjustments to colder temps
over the next 24-36 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

AVIATION...
Winds continue to be the main concern in this TAF period as VFR
scattered high clouds continue to stream across South Central Texas.
Winds for the I-35 corridor are currently out of the south less than
10 knots. Winds will gradually become light and westerly briefly
before becoming sustained out of the north between 4-6z at
AUS/SAT/SSF between 5 and 10 knots. At DRT winds are already out of
the northwest and will be gusty for a few more hours before
decreasing overnight. By the second half of Saturday (16z at DRT and
around 22z at the I-35 terminals) the winds will become more easterly
at all of the terminals across the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Record heat is underway across much of South Central Texas this
afternoon with both Austin sites and Del Rio already breaking their
record highs for today the 15th. However, this will be short lived
as a cold front currently moving south of the Red River is expected
to move across much of our area tonight into early Saturday morning.
Patchy fog is possible near the Coastal Plains late this evening into
overnight before the cold front passes through that area. The cold
airmass behind the front will be rather shallow at less than 1,000
feet based on forecast soundings. As a result, insolation will mix
the front to the east allowing for well above normal temperatures
across the Hill Country to the Rio Grande Plains, east into the San
Antonio area on Saturday. Further east, temperatures return to near
normal. A rather sharp temperature gradient is possible, most likely
just east of the Highway 281 corridor, though this location could
change depending on the amount of mixing. The front retreats to the
north Saturday evening. Patchy fog is possible near the Coastal
Plains. A Pacific front moves across our area late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning bringing slight chances of light rain
showers to near the Coastal Plains. One more day of above normal
temperatures is expected on Sunday, before the next surge of a colder
airmass.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
This surge of a modified Canadian airmass is expected on Monday. In
its wake, surface ridging settles into our area for much of the week
while upper level troughing remains generally over the western
states. Weak impulses riding the flow southwesterly flow aloft over
area will cause isentropic lift resulting in light rain showers
Monday night through Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday. Below to well below normal temperatures are expected due to
the clouds and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  65  55  70  45 /   0  -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  65  55  70  45 /   0  -   -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  68  55  72  45 /   0   0  -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            45  67  49  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  84  54  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        45  62  51  67  43 /   0  -   -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             55  79  55  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        50  66  54  71  45 /   0  -   -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   52  64  56  71  47 /  -   -   10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       53  72  57  74  47 /   0   0  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           55  72  57  75  48 /   0   0  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks