Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 191603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
903 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Look for windy conditions to develop later today
along with a slight chance of thundertorms near the New
Mexico/Arizona border. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures
are forecast Friday through the weekend, with thunderstorm
chances returning to northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday.


.UPDATE...The main weather story today continues to be windy
conditions and critical fire weather across portions of
northwestern Arizona. The KFGZ sounding this morning shows
sufficient support of 35-45 kt winds aloft that should easily mix
down to the surface this afternoon supporting our wind advisory.
Gusts of at least 45 mph can be expected in the advisory area
with closer to 35 mph elsewhere. There will also be a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms across Apache county. The
forecast handles the scenario well with only minor tweaks made
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...A low pressure system was located
over the Pacific Northwest this morning poised to move across the
western states. The main impact for northern Arizona will be windy
conditions. As the low approaches and pressure gradients
strengthen southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph will
develop across the area toward Noon and last through the
afternoon. The area from about Winslow north and west will see
afternoon wind gusts to 45 mph and thus a Wind Advisory is effect
for this area. In addition, the current low will be a dry one
bringing heightened fire danger for portions of northwest Arizona
with a Red Flag Warning in effect for some areas. Otherwise, look
for near normal temperatures with just a slight chance of
afternoon thunder over the White Mountains. Winds will become
lighter overnight.

For Friday through Sunday...A dry west to northwest flow will
develop. Conditions will remain a bit breezy on Friday as the
current low shifts northeastward but then become light as the low
moves out of our area. Near normal temperatures are anticipated.
Later on Sunday another low pressure system will approach Arizona
drawing some moisture northward. Not much impact to speak of just
a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the
White Mountains.

From Monday into Wednesday...Low pressure dips into Arizona and
moves across the state. The forecast models indicate that there is
some uncertainty in the timing and position of the low but the
main message is that additional moisture will be drawn northward
for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Cooler air associated with the low will result in daytime
temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal. We will know more
about the details of the low as time draws closer. We`ll keep you


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions
through the 24 hour TAF period. The exception being isold shra/-tsra
along the New Mexico border through 01Z. Sfc winds sw15-25g35-40kts
from 17Z-02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and windy conditions are expected today and
Friday, with the windiest conditions expected this afternoon. A
Wind Advisory and a Red Flag Warning are in effect for portions of
Coconino county on Thursday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and seasonable weather will develop
over the weekend, with generally light southwest winds. Moisture
increasing from the south on Monday will bring cooler weather, with
areas of showers and thunderstorms.


this evening FOR AZZ004-006-007-012-015.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ106-107.




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