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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291549
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 AM MST Mon May 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm and dry weather is expected to
continue into the first-half of the week. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the later half of next week, along with
the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain.

&&

.UPDATE...Beautiful sunny skies with no clouds around so far this
morning. The south-southwest flow will continue today with some
gusts around 20 to 25 mph across the region through this afternoon.
Forecast looks to be on track with only minor edits needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /124 AM MST/...through Tuesday...A trough will
descend southward along the California Coast today, allowing for
heights to become amplified to the east over New Mexico. Warm,
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are expected over much
of Arizona as a result. Breezy afternoon southwesterly winds are
also expected, mainly along and downwind of the high terrain
where gusts of 15-25 mph will be possible.

Wednesday through Sunday...The aforementioned trough begins to
shift eastward through Arizona by Wednesday. The increased
southerly flow ahead of the trough will allow for moisture
advection to increase over Arizona. Consequently, clouds and the
potential for showers and thunderstorms increase over the region
to finish out the week. EPS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble guidance
have all trended a bit wetter in the latest runs, with nearly all
the EPS and CMCE members showing precipitation. PWATs look to top
out at around 0.40"-0.60" in the Thursday-Saturday timeframe,
thus overall precipitation amounts are expected to remain light
through the period.

Beyond the precipitation potential, temperatures are expected to
cool a few degrees with the trough overhead. Breezy afternoon
winds will also continue through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF Package...VFR persists through the 24
hour TAF period with little to no cloud cover. Southwest winds, 10-
15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, are expected through 02Z-03Z. Winds
become light and variable thereafter. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions with seasonably
warm temperatures are expected. South/southwest winds gusting 15-25
mph each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy
gusts 10-20 mph each afternoon. Slight chances for isolated showers
in the afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. The greatest
potential will be on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Humphreys
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff