Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
427 PM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming
trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next


.DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues its trek across the
state, bringing breezy winds and seasonable temperatures to
northern Arizona today. The journey seems to have left the system
a bit tired, leading to the tighter pressure gradients and stronger
winds being delayed until later this evening and overnight. This
will help limit the strength of the afternoon wind gusts today.
Expect breezy south-southwest winds with gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range. Winds remain elevated overnight for areas along and
just downwind/northeast of high terrain. Temperatures cool briefly
on Saturday, clocking in at near to five degrees below average.
Despite the long haul, this elongated system will not provide a
sip of refreshing water to dry northern Arizona during this leg of
the race. Slightly stronger winds will impact northeast Arizona
Saturday. With elevated winds gusts forecast to be between 30 to
40 mph, near critical fire weather conditions are expected, mainly
for eastern and northeastern Arizona. Please practice caution if
working or recreating outside this weekend. These winds have the
potential to make a single spark go for a long run.

Sunday into Next Week...High pressure will rapidly build over the
region with an upper-level ridge forming across much of the
western United States. A warming trend will accompany the ridge
with each day seeing afternoon temperatures take slow, but steady
steps upward. Average temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be
close to average before becoming closer to five degrees above
average for much of next week. Some models indicate another
trough will displace the high pressure by the end of next week.
However, other members show the ridge remaining in place, keeping
the trough well north of Arizona. There is low certainty in what
the weather pattern will look like a week from now. Regardless,
the synoptic pattern is trending towards a more summer-like
pattern in the long run.


.AVIATION...Saturday 25/00Z through Sunday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
with FU/HZ possible near KCMR. SW-S winds 10-20 kts with gusts
20-30 kts through 03Z, then 5-10 kts overnight. SW winds increase
to 10-20 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/00Z through Tuesday 28/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday,
then SW-W winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts on Sunday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Dry conditions with cooler
than normal temperatures on Saturday. A warming trends starts on
Sunday. Near-critical fire weather conditions expected today and
Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley. Winds southwest 15-
25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH
values 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and continued dry
conditions. Winds primarily southwest to west 10-20 mph each day.
Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15%.






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