Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
237 PM MST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...The strong cold front that is bringing gusty
southwest winds, much cooler temperatures, and scattered rain and
snow showers will exit the area this evening. Gusty northerly
winds will continue behind the front on Tuesday, with cool daytime
temperatures. Quiet weather with a gradual warming trend is
anticipated through the remainder of the week.


.DISCUSSION...The cold front is currently located roughly from
Payson-Winslow-Four Corners as of 2pm. Widespread southwest wind
gusts of 40-50 mph have been reported today ahead of the front.
The strongest winds have been in the Little Colorado River Valley
and White Mountains where frequent gusts of 55-65 mph are being
observed. Wind Advisories remain in place through 5pm MST for much
of northeast Arizona. A High Wind Warning continues until 7pm MST
for the White Mountains region. As the front passes, winds will
gradually weaken and shift to the west-northwest. Scattered
showers (mainly in the form of snow) developed near the cold
front earlier this morning and are moving east with the front.
Snowfall accumulations have remained light with most locations
reporting less than half an inch.

Expect clearing skies for most locations with winds shifting to
the north overnight. Winds will remain northerly on Tuesday and be
locally gusty at times. The strongest winds will be over the
higher terrain such as the San Francisco Peaks where very strong
wind gusts are expected. It won`t be the most pleasant day to be
outdoors with the gusty winds and daytime temperatures around 5-10
degrees below normal for late January.

A high amplitude ridge will set up over the eastern Pacific for
the remainder of the week with northern Arizona residing on the
backside of the ridge. This will generally result in dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. However, a couple of
additional pieces of energy embedded within the persistent
northerly flow could provide some reinforcing shots of cooler air
and gusty winds mainly to the Four Corners region. No
precipitation is expected with any of these systems.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect generally NW winds 10G20KT
overnight becoming N at 15-25KT gusting 25-35KT after 16Z. The
stronger winds will be over the higher terrain. An isolated SHSN is
possible in the vicinity of the Chuska and White Mountains until
about 12Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northwest winds continue overnight becoming
northerly Tuesday morning. This will keep temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below normal. Wednesday will see lighter winds and the start
of a dry warming trend.

.Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm back to near
normal through the remainder of the week, with continued dry


this afternoon FOR AZZ005-009>013- 016-039-040.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ014-017.




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