Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150349
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the region overnight into
Sunday. The front will bring continued gusty southwest winds and
increasing chances of snow and rain showers. Daytime temperatures
will be much colder Sunday through Tuesday. Mainly quiet weather
will return Tuesday through the second half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Satellite shows the cold air mass with a band of showers
and low to mid level clouds entering the region along the Utah
border and tracking south. Radar indicates most of the shower
activity is northwest of the line from Kingman to Page with
reports of moderate rain showers along the Utah border and road
cameras showing wet roads across the area. Radar and satellite
also indicate some shower activity over the Black Mesa and the
Four Corners area. Snow levels are dropping to below 7000 feet
over night from northwest to southeast with the heaviest
precipitation over the high plateaus and mountains north of I-40.
The current forecast looks good with no changes needed in the
grids.

The Wind Advisory for the area along and northeast of the
Mogollon Rim from Flagstaff to Show Low was allowed to expire as
the winds have decreased in the area to below 40 mph. Expect the
stronger winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph to continue overnight
and into Sunday morning in these areas.

The Wind Advisory continues for southern Apache County through 5
PM Sunday with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph overnight and through
the day, especially in the Springerville area.

The Winter Weather Advisory for the Kaibab Plateau continues
through 11 AM Sunday with 4-6 inches snow expected near Jacob
Lake. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Chuska Mountains
continues through 5 PM Sunday with 4-8 inches snow likely on
Buffalo Pass.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /225 PM MST/...SHORT TERM (Through Monday
night)...Gusty southwest winds are being observed this afternoon
as a cold front approaches the state from the north. Gusts along
and north of the Mogollon Rim have generally been in the 35-45
mph range, with higher gusts of 50-55 mph reported in
Springerville. The Wind Advisories remain unchanged with this
forecast package. Strong winds will persist through the night and
into Sunday across southern Apache County.

We are beginning to see shower activity develop in far northwest
Coconino County along the Utah border. Expect shower activity to
become more widespread through the evening hours. Snow levels
will initially be high at around 8,000 feet early this evening.
Precipitation chances will continue to increase overnight and into
Sunday morning as the cold front drops south through the state.
Snow levels will fall to 4,000-5,000 feet by Sunday afternoon.
Moisture will be limited from Interstate-40 southward, and only
light rain/snow accumulation is anticipated in this region. A
general 3-6 inch snowfall across the Kaibab Plateau and Chuska
Mountains is still on track with locally higher amounts to 8
inches possible. Be prepared for winter driving conditions if you
have travel plans in this area tonight into Sunday. No changes
were made to the Winter Weather Advisory products.

The front will exit the region later Sunday, with a cold airmass
advecting in behind it. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday
will be chilly, at around 10 degrees below normal. Night time
temperatures will be in the teens to single digits over the higher
terrain Sunday and Monday nights.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday morning)...Breezy northeast
winds will be possible on Tuesday with daily highs remaining on
the cool side and struggling to get out of the mid 30s along the
high terrain. Winds will continue to remain breezy into the
evening for areas south of the high terrain.

On Wednesday, a primarily dry cold front will sweep through
bringing a return to breezy southwest winds and an increase in
high clouds across the area. A few isolated showers could not be
ruled out in the northeast by early Thursday, however, this is
not an idea that is common across the model guidance.

Behind this Wednesday system, we return to a ridging pattern over
the southwest with warming temperatures as heights rise and light
winds through the weekend. A possible return to more active
weather returns next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Rain and snow showers will become
more widespread tonight through Sunday morning from KFLG northward.
MVFR and localized IFR conditions are expected in this area,
especially over higher terrain. Expect breezy SW winds overnight 10-
20 kts gusting up to 30 kts over the high terrain along the Mogollon
Rim from KFLG southeast through KSOW. Locally higher gusts near 40
kts likely in the vicinity of KJTC. On Sunday, winds will shift to
west and northwest through the day while showers decrease by late
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will bring continued gusty southwest
winds and increasing chances for rain and snow showers through
Sunday. Behind the front, expect colder temperatures and a shift to
northerly winds later Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cool conditions and breezy northeast
winds continue Tuesday, with a warming trend and a shift to
southwesterly winds on Wednesday. Light winds expected Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday
FOR AZZ014-017.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday FOR AZZ004.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday
FOR areas above 8,000 ft in AZZ011.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/ET
AVIATION...MCT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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