Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 021627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer conditions and lighter winds are expected
today. A warm, moist Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, rain,
and high elevation snow to northern Arizona Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Fair weather returns Friday and Saturday. More
unsettled weather returns next week.


.UPDATE...Weak high pressure just east of Arizona will slide
eastward today. This will bring generally light winds and warmer
temperatures to the area today. Just a few high clouds will move
northward across northern Arizona this afternoon. No updates need
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...Tuesday will be very pleasant
compared to our previous few cooler days with highs in the mid
50s to mid 70s. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few passing
high clouds and lighter winds. A great day to get out and stretch
your legs before the next storm system arrives.

On Wednesday, south winds will pick up ahead of an incoming
closed low approaching the southern California coast. Mid level
moisture will begin to stream in allowing for increasing cloud
cover through the afternoon. Rain and snow showers will spread
northward by late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Models
continue to shift the track of the low and precipitation amounts
with the latest runs coming in a bit wetter. Higher confidence
continues to be put in tailoring amounts to be in line with
ensemble means that have had far less fluctuation. Generally,
still expect the heaviest precipitation to be Thursday morning
with snow amounts 1-3 inches possible in the high terrain above
6500 ft. The system looks to exit the area by Thursday afternoon.
Aside from some slick roads on Thursday morning, the impacts do
not look to be widespread or long lasting.

A ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
week with warming temperatures through Saturday Early next week,
another trough may impact the area with another round of gusty
winds. Beyond early next week, it appears the pattern stays fairly
active with the potential for longwave troughing over the
southwest. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions and
generally light east to southeast winds less than 10 kts through the
24 hr forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect fair and warm conditions today, with light
winds. South through southwest winds increase on Wednesday, with
increasing clouds and a chance of rain and snow showers developing

Thursday through Saturday....Areas of rain and mountain snow will
decrease Thursday morning, gusty southwest winds becoming westerly
and then northwesterly through the day. Colder temperatures Thursday
will rebound once again Friday and Saturday. Light northerly winds
Friday becoming gusty and from the southwest Saturday.






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