Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
856 AM MST Sun May 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy weather continues for today and
Monday. There will be a slight chance of showers each day, mainly
northeast of Flagstaff. Warmer conditions and lighter winds
arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the week.


.UPDATE...A trough situated to our north will continue to bring
breezy weather to the forecast area today with near average
temperatures. Expect wind gusts this afternoon from 25 to 35 mph.
In addition, similar to yesterday, there will be some afternoon
cumulus build ups that may produce some virga or a few light
showers across the northeastern corner of the state. Made minor
tweaks to shower chances and cloud forecasts today but otherwise
things look good.


.PREV DISCUSSION /410 AM MST/...A slowly deepening trough, located
well to the north of Arizona, will continue to provide breezy to
windy days for today and Monday. Wind speeds expected to peak on
Monday, as the trough axis approaches the Four Corners. Just
enough cold air aloft exists over the northern zones for a slight
chance of shallow, convective showers, but no impacts or
significant QPF are anticipated. Winds will stay below Wind
Advisory criteria, but localized FWX concerns may crop up on
Monday over the eastern zones.

Ridging develops from Tuesday onward, with temperatures climbing
above normal and wind speeds decreasing for most areas. Another
dry trough may increase winds again by later next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24
hour TAF forecast period. Areas CU with cigs from 10-12kft AGL
mainly NE of a KPGA-KFLG-KSJN line, with ISOLD -SHRA. Skies
generally clearing again aft 02Z-04Z. Sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts
from 18Z-02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect breezy to windy conditions for today and
Monday as a trough lingers to our north. Some locations over Navajo
and Apache counties may approach Critical Fire Weather conditions
Monday afternoon. A slight chance of shallow, convective showers
will persist over the northeastern zones this afternoon through
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and
generally light winds are expected for this period.






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