704
FXUS65 KFGZ 200532
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1032 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Colder temperatures and gusty north to northeast winds
arrive Monday and Monday night, decreasing Tuesday. Very, very dry
conditions and continued cool temperatures linger Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures and generally light northeast winds continue through
Thursday, before winds turn southwesterly on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across the state this evening and
winds have just about gone calm at many locations. With our very dry
air mass in place, this is a recipe for bitterly cold overnight low
temperatures and our current forecast reflects that.

On Monday, a cold front shifts winds north to northeasterly and
ushers in a modified-Canadian air mass, daytime temperatures will
decrease 5 to 15 degrees compared to today. Winds will increase
through the day, peaking Monday night and decreasing into Tuesday.

These winds may even cause localized tree damage immediately
southwest of the Mogollon Rim, Bradshaw Mountains and along the
western and southwestern slopes of the San Francisco Peaks Monday
night. Headlines may be needed over a small area. Wind chill values
will also drop well below zero in may places by Tuesday morning.

The air mass that follows the front is incredibly dry, with dew
points reaching well into the 10 to 30 degree BELOW zero range on
Tuesday. You don`t see this very often in Arizona and our skin will
feel it.

Another northeast wind event is possible Wednesday night and into
Thursday, although temperatures will be moderating through the week.
Chances for unsettled weather are still possible for next weekend
and the following week, but widely varying solutions do not instill
much confidence at this time.

No updates needed, previous shift covered all details well.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 20/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Mainly light winds overnight, with light NE drainage
flow immediately SW of higher terrain. Sfc winds increase, becoming
N-NE10-20kg25-30kts AFT 18Z-19Z Monday. Locally stronger gusts from
35-45kts during 23Z-04Z along and just SW of the Mogollon Rim, the
Bradshaw Mountains and over the San Francisco Peaks.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Gusty NE continue Monday night, especially along and
just SW of the Mogollon Rim, Bradshaw Mountains and over the San
Francisco Peaks. Further north, winds will be gradually diminishing.
Expect north to northeast winds at 10-20kts Tuesday, diminishing to
5-10kts Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...A dry cold front will move
through Monday, dropping daytime temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees.
Winds becoming north to northeast at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph
on Monday behind the front. North to northeast winds will continue
Monday night into early Tuesday, especially along and immediately
south of the Mogollon Rim, Bradshaw Mountains as well as over the
San Francisco Peaks. These areas may see wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph
Monday night, higher over the peaks. Expect extremely dry and cool
conditions on Tuesday, with decreasing northeast through east winds.

Wednesday through Friday...Becoming much warmer and continued very
dry. North through northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday and
Thursday, with stronger gusts possible Wednesday night. Winds turn
southwesterly Friday, at 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff