274
FXUS65 KFGZ 132324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 PM MST Mon Jul 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return to the area through the
coming week bringing better storm chances, especially for areas
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. With the added moisture,
hot temperatures begin to trend downward Monday ending up towards
seasonal averages later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong high pressure system aloft continued to
build toward the north-central United States. The position of the
high will place Arizona in a favorable position for increasing
monsoon moisture over the coming week.

For today...The bulk of deeper moisture remains from the Mogollon
Rim southward with a drier air mass further north. It isn`t quite
as unstable as on Sunday (CAPE in the mountains 150 J/kg, 250 to
400 J/kg south of the Rim) but we still expect scattered showers
and storms to build over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and
toward the Grand Canyon starting around Noon. After that the
combination of flow aloft and the movement of thunderstorm
outflow toward the lower terrain will result storms generally
heading to the west to southwest. The strongest storms will be
across Yavapai County and western Gila county, which will last
into the evening hours. A few of these storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph with hail up to nickle size.
North of the Mogollon Rim, activity will be isolated with a drier
air mass in place. Could see some evening activity across
northeast Arizona as thunderstorm outflows move in from New Mexico
and initiate localized convection. The main threat will be
locally gusty winds to 40 mph but otherwise, thunderstorms
generally weak.

For the remainder of the week...The high aloft will remain over
the north-central United States into Wednesday before an inverted
trough moving from east to west (south of the high center)
dominates the weather across the southwest United States through
the weekend. The net result is the door will remain open to the
continued intrusion of moisture from over the Gulf of California
and northwest Mexico, gradually working it`s way further north.
Look for active monsoon weather to continue with the chances for
daily showers and thunderstorms continuing through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA through 04Z and again after 18Z, mainly
over the higher terrain. Brief MVFR and gusty outflow winds possible
in and around TS. Winds SW-SE 5-15 kts through 03Z, then becoming
light and VRB, increasing again after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/00Z through Friday 17/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Daily chances for SHRA/TSRA mainly over the higher
terrain each afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR and gusty outflow
winds possible in and around TS. Winds S/SW 5-15 kts each day,
becoming light and VRB overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms, primarily over the higher terrain. Wetting rains
and gusty outflow winds possible with any stronger storm. Outside of
storm activity, winds south/southwest 5-15 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with the best chances over the higher
terrain. Wetting rains and gusty outflow winds possible with any
stronger storm. Outside of storm activity, winds west through south
5-15 mph.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff