Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak ridge over northern Arizona is giving us mild
weather, but enough moisture is still in the area for a few
showers over the Coconino Plateau and from the Black Mesa to the
Chuska Mountains. An active weather system moves into the area
Wednesday to Saturday delivering cooler temperatures along with
good chances for rain and snow showers with a few thunderstorms.


.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system off the west coast has a
series of shortwave troughs moving through it that will impact the
area starting Wednesday. The first trough arrives Wednesday with
mid to upper level cooling to kick off showers and thunderstorms
especially north of I-40. The second wave comes in early Thursday
with the main low pressure system passing over northern Arizona
through the day and into the evening with wide spread showers
across much of the area. Expect snow levels to drop to 6500 to
7000 ft Thursday, but significant snow accumulations will be
limited to above about 8000 ft. A third shortwave comes in on the
back of the low to keep the atmosphere unstable Friday with few to
scattered rain/snow showers lingering in the area, mostly over
the higher terrain. One last trough passes to the north Saturday
kicking off afternoon and evening rain/snow showers from the San
Francisco Peaks to the Chuska Mountains ant to the north.

We`ll see a few days of fair weather before the next system
starts moving in off the Pacific early Wednesday, bringing the
next round of unsettled weather lasting possibly into the weekend.
This springtime weather pattern doesn`t show signs of changing in
the foreseeable future, with a long train of low pressure systems
moving through the longwave pattern. At this time it looks like
we`re in store for a wet start to spring. We`ll just have to wait
and see how it turns out.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect isolated showers mainly
across the higher terrain through 02Z. CIGS 5-8kft AGL in and near
any convection, but mainly VFR conditions will continue through the
24hr TAF period. Winds will generally be less than 10kts. Showers
will become more widespread after 17Z Wednesday. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough of low pressure will slowly move
across Arizona on Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring cooler
high temperatures, increasing winds, and increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

.Friday through Sunday...Two weak low pressure troughs will move
across the area on Friday and Saturday with cool temperatures, breezy
southwest winds, and a chance for rain and snow showers.
Temperatures will begin to warm on Sunday with a few lingering
showers possible.






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