Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 252141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
241 PM MST Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty south-southwest winds will occur on Sunday,
ahead of an intense cold front that will continue to produce
strong winds through Monday. Rain and mountain snow showers will
also accompany this front Sunday night through Memorial Day. The
remainder of the week will feature warming temperatures and low
precipitation chances.


.DISCUSSION...A generally quiet weather day across northern
Arizona with mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds.
Daytime temperatures are about 5-10 degrees below normal. Expect
quiet weather to continue tonight, but southwest winds will remain
breezy northeast of the higher terrain.

An approaching low pressure system will begin to impact the region
on Sunday, with south-southwest winds increasing through the day.
The strongest winds are expected along and north of the Mogollon
Rim, where gusts up to 45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has
been issued in a large portion of this area from 11am to 6pm.
Increasing cloud cover, especially in the afternoon, will act to
keep daytime temperatures around 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
Shower chances will be on the increase in the evening across
western Coconino and Yavapai counties.

The most impactful weather looks to occur late Sunday night into
Monday morning when the core of the upper low crosses over
northwest Arizona. As it does so, the associated cold pool will
help lower snow levels to between 6,500-7,000 feet by Monday
morning. Rain and mountain snow showers can be expected, with the
most widespread precipitation from roughly Flagstaff-Williams
northward to the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau. At this time,
around an inch of snow is possible near Flagstaff and the Grand
Canyon with higher amounts of 3-5 inches on the North Rim and
Kaibab Plateau. However, stay tuned to the latest forecasts as
the exact track of the upper low will impact these amounts. This
system will also bring continued gusty winds on Monday along with
daytime temperatures around 25 degrees below normal. Needless to
say, Monday won`t be the best day for outdoor activities. Shower
activity will linger into Monday afternoon before diminishing.

For the remainder of the week, northern Arizona is stuck in a
pattern of weak troughing. The airmass will be moderating over the
region and after mid-week we expect temperatures to climb to near
normal values for late May. Precipitation chances are low, but
with the weak troughing it`s hard to rule out an isolated shower
or two each day.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue under
mostly clear skies. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts
will decrease after 01Z. Southwest winds will increase and become
stronger 14-16Z. Sunday afternoon wind gusts could be 30-
40kts...locally even higher. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough of low pressure will bring increasing
southwest winds on Sunday...with gusts from 35-45 mph. Showers
will move from west to east starting Sunday night. The low will
move back into Utah by late Monday. The White Mountains area may
miss out on any precipitation. Showers may last into Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Isolated showers and gradually warming
temperatures are expected.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ010>017-039- 040.




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