Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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989 FXUS63 KDLH 080808 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some morning sunshine, then a 20-30% chance for showers/storms this afternoon/evening. A few storms could contain gusty winds to ~40 mph and pea size hail. - Quiet weather Sunday and Monday. - Periodic shower/storm chances Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 An upper-level trough and some mid-level frontogenesis is causing some light to moderate rain out there this morning. This will continue moving southeast and should clear northwest Wisconsin by mid-morning or so. In the wake of that, there should be a period of partially sunny skies that will promote some diurnal heating. Most models, similar in many ways to yesterday, suggest some pretty dry conditions developing today (min RH to ~30%) with steep low-level lapse rates as high as 8-9C/km by the afternoon and early evening. As a result, some blustery northwest winds are expected along with the development of isolated showers and storms. These will be aided synoptically by several weak passing waves aloft this afternoon associated with a broader upper-level low over Ontario. Without a lot of moisture, many to most places likely won`t see much shower/storm activity, but for those that do, the steep low- level lapse rates could promote some fairly robust downdrafts that could be capable of producing some locally strong wind gusts around 40 to 45 mph or so, along with perhaps some pea size hail. After sunset, showers/storms diminish leading to quiet weather. On Sunday, temperatures are trending down a smidge with more upper-level waves cycling through. Some relatively cooler northwest flow may promote more stratus clouds through the day. Highs will likely top out in the 60s and winds will again be a bit blustery. High pressure moves in Sunday night into Monday, and Monday is looking like a slightly warmer and sunny day. Going into Tuesday, there`s starting to be a little more model agreement on a low pressure system developing and traversing west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of the Canadian border. An attendant cold/occluded front could promote a line of showers and storms. At this time, convective parameters look pretty unfavorable for severe weather (decent shear but low CAPE). We`ll have to keep an eye on how this evolves, but as of now, it doesn`t appear overly concerning. A fairly active pattern may continue into the middle and late week as models hint at a return to southerly flow (and warmer weather) following Tuesday`s system, then potentially more upper-level waves that could promote showers/storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 An area of rain will pass through most terminals over the next 6 hours (possibly passing south of INL). There is plenty of dry air at the surface, which will keep any rain pretty light and ceilings above 3kft. VFR conditions are expected. On Saturday, clouds will largely clear out and winds should become breezy with dry air and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon and evening (~25% chance). Timing of these is tricky due to the scattered nature, and some terminals may not be impacted at all. But, if a shower or storm passes over, the biggest concern other than brief heavy rain will be the potential for brief gusty and erratic winds. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 West winds will pick up in speed today around 10-15 mph and gusting to 20 mph. Winds will hold steady or decrease a bit with similar directions going into Sunday. There will be a bit of rain this morning, and perhaps isolated showers/storms this afternoon/evening (~20% chance). Winds become light Sunday night and swing around to the northeast. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS