Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 111824

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1224 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Upper level analysis has ridging over the central CONUS with a
strong trof entering the Pacific Northwest. Skies across the
northern Plains are mostly clear. At the surface, lee trof is
located across central Montana into northeast Wyoming with
temperatures at 4am mainly in the 40s. Winds are out of the south
at 5 to 15 mph.

Warmer air will continue to build into the area today, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs today will be in the in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. Surface lee trof will produce breezy south-southwest
winds in some areas today, especially across parts of northeast WY
and south central SD. A cold front will cross the area late
tonight and Thursday morning, bringing much cooler air for the
latter part of the week. After today, high temps will gradually
cool into the 40s to around 50 degrees on Saturday.

Upper ridge slides east as active southwest upper flow takes
over, and will bring increasing chances for showers by late
Thursday night/Friday. The best chances for showers look to be on
Saturday as the trof is progged to swing east across the region.
Temps look cold enough during the overnight and early morning
hours for some snow showers, especially on Saturday across the
higher terrain. Some freezing precip may be possible across far
northwest SD early Saturday morning.

Medium range models agree on a dry and warmer period for Sunday and
especially early next week as a broad ridge is forecast to build
across the western US and eventually into the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1222 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Areas
of low level wind shear are expected between 03Z and 09Z tonight
across the western South Dakota plains.




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