000
FXUS63 KUNR 131703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW NOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL MORE WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO WYOMING/MONTANA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA TO WESTERN WYOMING.
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW/LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG THETA
E ADVECTION. KUDX RADAR SHOWS REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY EVENINGS WYOMING
CONVECTION NOW PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS IT
DISSIPATES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AND IN
RESPONSE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WYOMING INTO
MONTANA. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CWA. THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG CAPPING WILL KEEP THINGS
QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE WILL
INCREASE TO +1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE STRONG CAPPING...THINK MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL THINK STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AROUND 06Z...THEN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 09Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 80S OVER SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LACK OF INSTABILITY/Q-G FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. UPPER LOW THEN DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. WEAK
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER TROF DIGS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH LCL GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VSBY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS...AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
TO NERN WY AND NWRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON