000
FXUS63 KUNR 262148
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN MILD NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...PEAKING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN
SD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5C WARMER THAN ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORCAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EVEN
THIN CIRRUS CAN HAVE A LIMITING AFFECT ON THE HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS SEEN AT KGCC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE TEMP FELL 4
DEGREES F AS A BAND OF THIN CLOUDS CROSSED THE STATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING VERY DRY RH PROFILES
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT GOOD HEATING DUE TO INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL MAXES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES. POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE WITH
THE GFS THE WARMER SOLUTION KEEPING ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13