Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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448
FXUS63 KUNR 201706
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1106 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Upper wave is pushing through the northern plains, and associated
precip has moved east out of the CWA. Broad upper ridge is
building over the western CONUS. Satellite shows mostly clear
skies across western SD, allowing temperatures to dip into the 40s
and even some 30s over the Black Hills. With surface high over
central WY, winds across northeastern WY and western SD are light
and westerly.

Weak upper energy will pass through northwest flow over the northern
plains today, with midlevel moisture resulting in mostly cloudy
skies over the western SD plains. Dry low levels, along with
subsidence and lack of instability, suggest no precipitation will
occur. Thermal ridge will begin to shift over the region, and
temperatures will warm into the 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills.
Skies will clear tonight as drier air moves in, and lows will be
mainly in the 40s.

Another dry day is expected Sunday as the upper ridge axis shifts
over the central states. Under sunny skies, winds will become
southerly as surface high slides south of the area. Highs will warm
into the 80s, with lows in the 50s Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Progressive but amplified flow expected in the period. Dry wx
forecast through most of the period given dry westerly flow with
limited return flow ahead of any impulses. Any convection that
does develop will be very high based with limited precip outside
scentral SD. Another strong trough is progged by the middle of
next week, which will knock down temps and bring slight chances of
precip toward the end of the week, given unsettled cyclonic flow.
The warmest day in the period will be Monday with shortwave
ridging supporting staunch waa into the region. Temps around 100
are expected over the far eastern fa then. Much cooler weather is
expected from Tues on, esp Thur when many places may see 60s for
highs over western areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1105 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 145 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Hot and dry conditions will return Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures Sunday will be in the 80s, with 90s expected for
Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will range from near 10%
across northeastern WY to around 25% across south central SD both
days. However, winds in the driest areas should be light enough to
preclude headlines. The breeziest winds of 20-30 mph are expected
across south central SD on Monday, where min RH should stay above
20%.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie



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