Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 131128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. CAA AND
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE MAIN LL BAROCLINIC
ZONE STALLS SW OF THE FA. ONGOING PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH DEEP
MIXING AND FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY OVER THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER NW SD. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION VIA GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF CAA
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY.

MONDAY...COOL/DRY WX ON TAP AS A 1025 MB SFC RIDGE COVERS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS...WITH 60S AND LOW 70S COMMON. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL SEE SOME UPPER
30S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FROST THERE IF WINDS GO
CALM. UPPER IMPULSE NOW LOCATED IN THE NE PAC IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW...AND WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED POS
THETA-E ADV RESPONSE OVER NW WY LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD VERY WELL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
SHRA/TS THERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW PROBS AND THE PERIOD...LEFT
THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPPER IMPULSE IS
ATTAINED BY FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TROF TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
HERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST AND SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CLIP WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL LEAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING THE
PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...SOME 60S OVER THE BLACK
HILLS.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY...15 TO 20 KTS...OVER MUCH OF
THE SD PLAINS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





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