Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180902
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT....DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR
AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO
MID 80S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AS WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AS WESTERN
TROF DEEPENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE TROF AND ENTERS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CROSSES
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE WRN CONUS
IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...THEN INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROF ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TO OUR REGION. PCPN
CHANCES WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF EVOLVES SLOWLY EWD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...BUT THEN COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.