Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 280426
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL SD EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWFA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13



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