Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 260916
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT
TROUGH CROSSES THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE LOW IS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE
NRN ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO ERN MT. STRONG RETURN FLOW
IS BRINGING WARMING TEMPS TO THE CWA...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 40S
UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS AND OVER NE WY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS SCNTRL
SD WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE TEMPS OVER NE WY WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS AND
PORTIONS OF NE WY.

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SD PLAINS. AT THIS TIME ITS LOOKING LIKE WINDS
COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY...THEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT REMAINING BREEZY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WX AND
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING SOME -SHRA AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







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