Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241022
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
322 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EAST OF THE REGION...
WITH NEXT ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG JET PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MILD AS BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST PLAINS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

A MILD DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A BIT MORE SNOW IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AS STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WARMEST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SD PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
ND THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS WAVE...BUT A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE IT AT LEAST CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO FAITH TO NEAR
WINNER...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE
EXPECTED...DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE WAVE.

AS THE INITIAL ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR LIGHTER PCPN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
SNOW IN MANY AREAS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY LATE
TONIGHT. BRUNT OF COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S. AS NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHED IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOWFALL SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN THE
MORNING SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE CAA DURING THE DAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
FROM BUFFALO TO THE RAPID CITY AREA. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY.
SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BITTER COLD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. IN THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND BEAR LODGE MTS...3 TO 7 INCHES IS FORECAST AT THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN LOBE OF
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. DRY WX WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.

COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 20-30 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SLIGHTLY WARMER...THOUGH STILL MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WAA WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN A BAND LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY.
MVFR CIGS WILL COVER MOST OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ024-025.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10





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