Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 161657

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
957 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 259 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Not much change in the overall pattern from the last couple days
to the next couple days. Upper ridging will continue to sit across
the central CONUS with a thermal ridge also centered across the
region. This will bring continued sunny skies and the warmest
temps of the day. Still some uncertainty exactly how warm it will
get, but there will likely be a lot more broken max temp records.
HRRR is showing highs reaching the lower 70s especially across the
northern/eastern foothills and surrounding plains. Think this is
more likely since most of those locations reached the mid to upper
60s yesterday with stronger winds. So will go with that solution.
A weak cold front is progged to cross the region Friday morning
ahead of a shortwave crossing the MT/ND area. This will bring
breezy NW winds to the area and cooler highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper ridging with mild and dry weather will continue through the
weekend. The next trough is progged to cross the region late
Sunday into Monday. The ECMWF and GFS show minimal precip with
this system, so will continue with chance pops. Warm temps should
keep most of the precip as rain showers. Weak ridging should keep
conditions mild and dry through midweek, and then models are
hinting at a return of wintry weather for the end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 957 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.


Issued At 259 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Warm and dry conditions are expected again today across the area.
Gusty southwest winds will develop today across some portions of
northeast WY. Overall looks like most areas will not reach Red
Flag conditions, however can`t rule out a few locations briefly
reaching Red Flag conditions across far southern Campbell County.




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