Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 221702
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHEAST WY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY/TONIGHT LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RESULT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY/NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IN PLACE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE
AREA ALONG BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. THESE
WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH QUICKLY SO QPF WILL BE LIGHT. ONLY
POTENTIAL EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE UPSLOPING
MAY ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. LARGE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE






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