Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 182304

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
504 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A 110 kt jet is moving over the CWA through northwest flow, and
an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Skies are mostly
cloudy over the Dakotas, MT, and northeastern WY. Hi-res
convective models were correct about scattered showers developing
this afternoon, as radar is picking up on echoes across the CWA.
Have increase PoPs a little through the evening. Surface winds are
generally northwesterly around 10 kts, and temperatures are
rising into the 70s.

Convection will gradually diminish this evening. Under partly cloudy
skies, lows will be around 50, and northwesterly winds will be light.

The upper ridge will shift over the area Monday and Tuesday,
resulting in warm and dry weather. A weak shortwave will cross the
northern plains Tuesday night, and the upper ridge will begin to
flatten. The ECMWF and Canadian keep the CWA dry, but the GFS has a
slightly stronger solution involving more precip around the region.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase towards the end of
the week as a couple waves move through nearly zonal flow. Highs
will be in the 80s and 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cooldown
expected towards the end of the week and into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 503 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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