Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 262331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAGNIFICENT EARLY FALL WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...GREAT WEEKEND AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AND SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ONLY FLY-IN-
THE-OINTMENT IS A CUTOFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IOWA/NRN
MISSOURI WHICH IS PRODUCING A LITTLE BIT OF CLOUD COVER OUT THAT
WAY. OTHERWISE... CLEAR SKIES STRETCH ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES BUT WITH A FAIRLY DEEP/STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE A WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE
GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CUTOFF CIRCULATION IN THE MIDWEST WILL
MEANDER AROUND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE GETTING SHOVED BACK
ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO
A NRN STREAM TROUGH THAT SAGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. BUT STILL SUSPECT THAT WE SEE AT LEAST SOME INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE CROSSES BACK
THROUGH AND WE DEVELOP A STRONGER DRAW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

OTHERWISE...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PERSISTENCE
REMAINS A GREAT CALL ON DAILY HIGHS/LOWS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
ALSO...WITH DAYTIME SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S...PATCHY FOG (DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS TEMPS FALL OFF QUICKLY) AND/OR SPOTTY
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE BUT STILL SOME NICE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A BIT MORE OF A TYPICAL FALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS WE ENTER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER...FEATURING SOME
MOVEMENT TO THE RECENTLY QUITE STAGNANT REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS. DEEPER WESTERN TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO HEAD EAST IN
PARTS...WITH ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION TOWARD MONDAY...WHILE A
SECONDARY STRONGER PIECE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK...LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THAT
FEATURE MAY HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE NEARBY INTO
LATE WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW DEEP THAT FEATURE BECOMES
IS RATHER LOW.

LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES ON MONDAY...SENDING A SHALLOW BUT RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT IN
OUR DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. A NICE TIGHT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
ALONG THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN ALMOST DEFORMATION LOOK TO DEEPER
LAYER FORCING ARGUES FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT MOST IF NOT ALL
AREAS...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
TIMING. FAIRLY STABLE MODEL TRENDS ALSO ARGUE FOR A BUMP UPWARD IN
POPS...THOUGH JUST SHY OF LIKELY GIVEN STILL SOME LOWER UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING (SREF MEMBERS MUCH CLOSER...WHICH OFTEN HAS SOME
MERIT WITH BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES).

LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR PESKY STRATUS ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON TUESDAY. SHALLOW STRONG COLD ADVECTION (H9
TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 2-7C RANGE) UNDERCUTTING RESIDUAL WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IS A TELLTALE SIGN AROUND THESE PARTS FOR LOTS OF
STRATUS...AND WILL BEGIN TO PLAY UP THAT IDEA...WHILE ALSO LOWERING
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS THINGS MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY CLOUDY.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LOOKS TO
RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF QUITE NICE EARLY
OCTOBER WEATHER - PERFECT FOR THE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING FALL COLORS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN PUSH 70 BY WEDNESDAY
(BARRING ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD ISSUES) AND PROBABLY INTO THE 70S FOR
THURSDAY AS THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT SITTING JUST OFF TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THAT FEATURE IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE HEAD
INTO LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MORE GROUND FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON. CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. TVC SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IMPACT...BUT APN/MBL/PLN WILL BE IFR TO LIFR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SAT MORNING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN AFTER THAT.

CALM WINDS TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE BREEZES BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS/MINIMAL WAVES.
DAYTIME WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY SMALL SCALE
PROCESSES (LAKE BREEZES...ETC).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM






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