Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 290249
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MERE MINUTES LATER...WE/VE SEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES EAST OF
MUNISING. NAM SHOWING MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN UPPER MI
FOR MOST OF NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

IN NORTHERN LOWER...IT/S THE SAME OLD STORY. LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD...SO PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO FORM.
THAT/S HOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...EXCEPT OVER FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI WHERE CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL VERY LATE.

BUT EASTERN UPPER HAS ACTUAL WX TO WORRY ABOUT! COLD FRONT IS
SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW...AND IS NEARING THE SOUTHERN SUPERIOR
SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHRA NEAR THE FRONT IS IN THE MUNISING/GD
MARAIS AREA...MOVING EAST. HAVE GONE A LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING
POPS TO NW CHIPPEWA CO....AND OVERALL BOOSTED POPS A BIT IN
EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...PERFECT WEATHER COMING TO AN END...

OVERVIEW: SPRAWLING RIDGE THAT HAS SO DOMINATED THE EASTERN CONUS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW GETTING FLATTENED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS
THAT REGION. ASSOCIATED WEST-EAST ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT HAS BEEN
STEADILY SAGGING THROUGH ONTARIO AND ABOUT TO SLIP INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/RAIN BACK ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG THE
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO QUITE THE WEATHER
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...TEMPS PUSHING 80F ACROSS ONTARIO YESTERDAY
BUT NOW CLAWING THROUGH THE 40S TODAY. SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME FOR
US.

MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS
HAS FOLDED INTO NRN MICHIGAN EVIDENCED BY AGITATED CU FIELD AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. CU FIELD STRETCHES INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL.

TONIGHT...IT/S BEEN SAID THAT ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END
AND OUR STRETCH OF PERFECT WEATHER IS ABOUT TO. FIRST OFF...GIVEN
THE AGITATED CU ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...JUST WAITING FOR THE SFC FRONT AND CLOUD
COVER TO SLOWLY SAG DOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE
TIP OF THE MITT BY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
FOLLOW SUITE...PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS
AREA BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...THE UP AND DOWN ROLLER COASTER WEATHER CONTINUES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH
TUESDAY DOES LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT FOR SOME AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE. SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF LATE WILL
SLOWLY COLLAPSE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT NOT WITHOUT A TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO MID
AND LATE WEEK. A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN MANITOBA TODAY
WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...QUITE STRONG/CLOSED
TROUGHING WILL EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO MIDWEEK...
BRIEFLY HELPING AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING BACK INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS (THAT`S A GOOD THING). NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS...THAT FEATURE
WILL OPEN THE DOORS FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM CANADA TO
CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THIS
FEATURE WORKING EAST INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AND RETURNING
US TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: LEAD SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP THROUGH THE
AREA...NUDGING A FAIRLY POTENT ALBEIT SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP ONGOING WITH
THIS FEATURE WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
WITH A WIDESPREAD AXIS OF QUITE LOW CLOUDS ALSO NOTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SAID FGEN FORCING AXIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...PUNTING THE RAIN
SHIELD IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH LIKELY WITH WANING COVERAGE/
INTENSITY AS IT OUTRUNS THE BETTER FORCING AND ENCOUNTERS AN
INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS. STILL...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT MOST AREAS WILL
PICK UP MEASURABLE RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP EVEN FURTHER. IT`S NOT EVEN
INCONCEIVABLE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE A WINDOW TO HEAT UP SOUTH OF M-32
FOR A TIME...WHILE AN AXIS OF REDUCED STABILITY ARCS INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE AS SOUTHWARD JAUNT INTO MONDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FADE WITH TIME BUT WITH MORE THAN
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY LIKELY WORDING. MEANWHILE...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR SLIDES IN BELOW 800MB...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT
FOR ALL AREAS. THAT JUNK WILL MORE THAN LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY...PERHAPS CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS MUCH DRIER SUB-900MB AIR TRIES ITS BEST TO ERODE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF SAID STRATUS. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEERING FROM NORTH TO
EASTERLY COMBINED WITH ALREADY LOW STRATUS ALSO HINTS AT SOME
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON UPSLOPE FLOW...PERHAPS HELPED ALONG BY A LAKE RESPONSE AS
WELL AS SHALLOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER LAKE HURON. TEMPS SHOULD
SPAN A PRETTY BIG RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ON
MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 50S (MAYBE EVEN
UPPER 40S SOME SPOTS?) BENEATH THE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST LINGERING STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD (HOPEFULLY!) GET
SHOVED BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG. PROVIDED CLOUDS DO
CLEAR...SHOULD SEE A NICE SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S. WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE MAINTAIN A DECENT GRADIENT...AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
OUR LATE WEEK SYSTEM. WHILE THE BASIC IDEA IS THERE FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD FRIDAY...THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE. VARIOUS
PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE WANTED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THAT IDEA CERTAINLY HAS MERIT GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE ALONG IT...NOT TO MENTION WHAT
SHOULD BE SOME HEALTHY DYNAMICS INVOLVED. PENDING THE EXACT
EVOLUTION...THERE COULD EASILY BE A THUNDER THREAT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION JUST
YET. COULD BE A QUITE WARM DAY ON THURSDAY PROVIDED RAIN HOLDS OFF
LONG ENOUGH...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE...BEFORE
THINGS TUMBLE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MUCH COLDER AND UNSETTLED LOOKS THE WAY TO GO
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AS WE MAINTAIN STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING
OVERHEAD. INCOMING AIRMASS (AT THE MOMENT AT LEAST) LOOKS PLENTY
COLD TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION AS H8 TEMPS
DIVE TOWARD 0 TO -3C...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO MODERATE
JUST A TAD AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. STILL...LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY
MAY TURN OUT RATHER SHOWERY CURRENTLY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES...WITH
THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SOME SPOTS MAY BE STUCK IN THE 40S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. CIG RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE MORE NIGHT OF GROUND FOG...AS CIRRUS THINS SOMEWHAT AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. PLN/MBL MOST LIKELY TO SEE VSBYS DIP TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS AT TIMES IFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RISK OF SHRA ON MONDAY (MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON). CIGS WILL LOWER SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE LOW
END OF MVFR. IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
APN/PLN.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NW TO N BREEZE DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO WIND/WAVE ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT. ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NE/N ON MONDAY. GUSTIER WINDS DEVELOP ON
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY... PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY.
WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH A BIT ON TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





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