Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
625 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

...Slowly getting warmer...

High impact weather potential: patchy frost possible tonight in the
usual colder inland locales.

High pressure is centered over lower MI early this morning. The high
will remain nearly stationary today, before drifting toward Lake Erie
tonight. The lingering 500mb trof will finally eject east, allowing
shortwave ridging to build in. This will firmly keep the lid slammed
shut on any precip chances, and maintain a dry low-level airmass.

Ongoing frost/freeze headlines remain up in the pre-dawn hours. concerns of note. The departure of the upper trof will
make it difficult to sustain even some of the patchy mid/high clouds
we/ve seen recently. Expect to see a few cumulus along and inland of
lake breeze boundaries this afternoon, otherwise no cloud cover of
note. 850mb temps will finally take a bump upward, to around 6/7c.
That will support warmer temps, and expect most locales to be in the
vicinity of 70f. The coastlines will of course be cooler. RH values
will again reach critical levels for fire wx interests today, but
winds will remain very much curtailed.

Tonight...will see a touch of warm-advection cirrus start to leak
in from the west. With any cu quickly apart, there will be little
to prevent good radiational cooling and another sharp temperature
drop tonight. But with a warmer start, we won/t get as cold as the
last several nights. In addition, the beginnings of low-level sw
flow and associated warm advection will be seen in eastern upper
MI, keeping them milder. Still, guidance spits out a number of 30s
in northern lower, and the likelihood of patchy frost in the usual
colder locales (Au Sable valley, PLN). Will add patchy frost to
the forecast as appropriate. Mins will range from mid 30s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Medium Impact Weather: elevated fire danger coming up as the high
temperatures reach 75F and the minimum RH will fall below 25%.

Forecast challenge: Sfc Dewpoints...Looking at the soundings and the
current pattern, GFS way too moist at the sfc and 850 mb.

(5/20)Friday and (5/21)Saturday...Pattern continues with a sfc high
over Hudson Bay and ridge that stretches into the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Upper Great Lakes. While at 500 mb, there is a weak
trough over the region with very dry air (RH<30% in the 700-500 mb
Layer). The only concern for precipitation is a 500 mb shortwave
that will ride down the flow Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. A
couple of days ago the GFS said it would rain with this feature, and
the ECMWF said no. Today, they have flipped with the ECMWF showing a
a chance in NE Lower overnight. Still of the opinion that if the
lower levels have been dry, that this feature will come through
moisture starved so would expect some clouds, but no precipitation.
Otherwise, will expect that the highs will slowly progress from the
lower to mid 70s, and that the minimum RH values in the afternoons
will remain at or below 25% both days. With the pattern kind of
stuck, the dewpoints may creep up, but with the temperatures also
moving up as well, the RH values the next few days (until we get
into a good return flow to bring moisture north) will remain stuck.
So with the RH around 25% and the temperatures around 75F will be
talking about elevated fire danger for a good portion of this week.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...The pattern with the high
stuck over the Upper Great Lakes continues into the early part of
next week until the rex block, in the east, begins to break down and
the sfc return flow starts. This will begin to trend out
temperatures upward through the middle of next week. As the sfc high
breaks down and the return flow starts, the sfc moisture will
increase Monday night night into Tuesday, when a warm front begins
to set up and produce showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday, an area
of low pressure will move out of the C Rockies, along the warm front
and continue the chance of thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016


High pressure remains over lower MI today...then drifts se
tonight. Dry air remains in place at low levels, resulting in
little in the way of cloud cover. Winds will be light and
variable, except for onshore lake breezes in the afternoon and
early evening.


Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure over lower MI early this morning...will remain
overhead today and then slowly move se. A touch of sw wind will
emerge on Lake Mi and Whitefish Bay as soon as late today as the
high moves away. But winds/waves will remain well under small
craft advisory conditions. Onshore lake breezes will be
commonplace each afternoon and early evening.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>019-

     FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-041-042.



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