Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231737
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Early this morning the region was under northwesterly flow aloft
as a stout mid-level ridge was in place across the western U.S. A
weak warm front extending from the surface low over Minnesota
stretched to around the KS/NE border early this morning and will
continue to skim eastward across far northeast KS this morning.
The only impact from this passing boundary will be winds briefly
shifting to the northwest across far north central/northeast KS
before backing to the southwest once again this afternoon. With
warmer air in place behind the boundary, the northwesterly winds
along with mostly sunny skies actually will aid in temperatures
quickly rising this morning, with unseasonably mild conditions
expected by this afternoon. Temperatures will likely be 15-20F
degrees above the seasonal normals with highs rising into the
low/mid 60s to upper 60s from east to west across the CWA. These
temperatures combined with dry conditions and abundant sunshine
will make for a beautiful Thanksgiving Day and perfect travel
conditions across the area.

By tonight, the mid-level ridge over the western U.S. will begin to
flatten as a mid-level trough over Canada begins to dive southward
into the Northern Plains.  This advancing trough will push the area
of surface low pressure over the Northern Plains further southward
into the Central Plains, however still expect south-southwesterly
surface winds through tonight.  Some high clouds will begin to
stream into the area early Friday morning with overnight
temperatures remaining mild as lows should only drop into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday still shaping up to bring high temperatures well above
normal, as mid level thermal ridge ahead of the next front moves
over eastern Kansas mid day. This should mix high temperatures
into the 70s midday, before the front moves through during the
afternoon into the evening hours. Precipitation not expected with
this boundary, but the warm temperatures and breezy winds
including the wind shift will bring fire weather concerns for
Friday. RH values currently forecast in the 30-38% range from west
to east, however deeper mixing into drier air aloft could drop
dewpoints another degree or two, which would drop RH values by
several percent. Will need to watch, although good news for fire
concerns may be that the strongest winds and the lowest RH values
wouldn`t necessarily occur at the same time of day.

Cooler high pressure moves in overnight and into Saturday,
although mixing overnight should keep lows in the 30s. Highs
Saturday still look to reach near 60 with lighter northerly winds.
Sundays temperatures come out similar to Saturday, possibly a few
degrees warmer as southerly surface winds return ahead of the lee
trof.

Monday may bring fire weather concerns similar to the previous
Friday, with strengthening winds ahead of another incoming front,
and will once again need be mindful of warmer/drier possibilities
as the front approaches. Temperatures behind the front cool into
the 50s for Tuesday, with lower 50s Wednesday as cooler
reinforcing shot of air comes southward off the Canadian prairie.
Think the EC solution that brings an upper low out of the central
Rockies into Kansas on Wednesday is an outlier, with only a few of
the ensembles reflecting something similar, and have favored the
operational GFS more progressive dry solution as of this
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR prevails as weak sfc troughing builds southward overnight,
increasing high clouds aft 00Z. Sustained south winds may approach
10 kts near the end of the forecast period.

&&


.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Prieto



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