Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 062051
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
251 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Surface trough axis centered across central and portions of
northeast Kansas this afternoon. Mixing the drier air to the
surface across north central areas has resulted in afternoon
dewpoints a few degrees lower in the upper teens, with RH values
near 20 percent. South of the axis, gusty southwest winds are
helping to hold dewpoints in the upper 20s. Better mixing
throughout also resulted in warmer temps with readings in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

For this evening, mid level shortwave trough drops southeast
towards the Midwest, pushing the warmer h85 temps and westerly
winds eastward over the CWA. Winds may temporarily weaken before
picking up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Overnight lows are therefore much warmer in the lower 30s area
wide.

Saturday is on tap to be similar to today, if not even warmer.
Thermal axis centers overhead tomorrow afternoon as temps warm from
6 to 8C. Latest trends on GFS and NAM MOS guidance with some decent
mixing present suggest highs tomorrow could be a few degrees warmer
in the lower 60s. Made some changes to lower dewpoints in the late
afternoon as most short term guidance was not handling the amount of
mixing present in the boundary layer, in addition to the increase in
the dry, westerly wind component during peak heating. The trough
axis passes through the area by late afternoon, shifting weak winds
to the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Light southerly winds and weak warm air advection should help hold
overnight lows into early Sunday morning in the lower 30s. As
another front slides southeast across Nebraska through the day,
the mid level thermal ridge noses east west through the forecast
area generally along the I70 corridor, and have gone warmer in
that area with middle 60s with upper 50s to near 60 north and
south. Front then moves through slowly overnight with little
impact to overall sensible weather, with lows again in the 30s.

Passing of this northern front and shortwave trof act to keep
southern stream upper trof and associated precipitation south and
east of eastern Kansas. Anticipate highs in the 50s on Monday with
slightly cooler temperatures on the back side of the system.

Tuesday through Friday brings more mild and above normal
temperatures, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows close to
40. Will keep an eye on fire weather concerns as some days mid to
late week could bring drier air, although at this time the pattern
is not suggestive of strong winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR prevails at terminals with clear skies and southwest winds
through the period. Low potential for speed LLWS to develop after
06Z with winds up to 900 feet just below 40 kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen





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