Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Bulk of precip overnight has been along elevated frontal boundary
from central to east central Kansas, with radar wind profiles
showing convergence around 850mb over this area. Both larger-scale
and rapid-update models indicate this convergence continuing to
weaken this morning, shifting south of the area by midday. Will
orient precip chances as such. As the surface high builds east into
the central Mississippi Valley, east winds will keep much of the
area stable this afternoon and evening, though western and southern
fringes could see moderate CAPE and little CIN if temps reach around
90F as anticipated. Seeing little in the way of low-level
convergence or shortwave activity for any convection however. Modest
isentropic upglide develops in western Kansas tonight, though
instability this far east even aloft looks meager. Will keep small
chances in western areas. Low levels showing a decent setup for
radiation fog tonight especially in eastern areas, but there should
be some increase in high cloud to keep the potential low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

On Tuesday the main westerlies will remain to the north across the
Dakotas and into Nebraska. An upper level high will be located over
the Rockies. This pattern changes slightly through the end of the
week with the upper high amplifying across the west with a mean
trough from Michigan into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
result in a northwest flow regime across the Central Plains.
periodic shortwaves will move through over the next several days
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Surface
high pressure will be centered over Illinois on Tuesday with a
frontal boundary extending from northern Arkansas northwest to a low
pressure centered over eastern Wyoming. The high will gradually move
off to the east while the front begins to lift northward as a warm
front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tuesday looks to be mostly dry,
however will continue with a small chance of precipitation as
morning convection may move in from the west and northwest. Models
have been in agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. A MCS may develop out in
western Nebraska and South Dakota then move east southeast and
affect north central and northeast Kansas late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There has been a northward trend with this system over
the last few model runs which would focus the better forcing across
Nebraska. Another wave is forecast to move southeast across the
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where another
convective complex would affect northern and eastern Kansas. A
frontal boundary is forecast to reside across northern Kansas
through Thursday before moving south into southern Kansas Friday.
Weak low level jet and isentropic lift over the frontal boundary may
develop isolated to scattered elevated convection across the area.
While the whole week will not be a washout, there will be periodic
storms to contend with. Strong winds will be the main hazard with
the MCS Tuesday night and again on Wednesday. Temperatures through
the period will be near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible through 20Z. Winds will remain
easterly as high pressure remains northeast of the area. Fog is
possible near dawn tomorrow morning. However, confidence is too
low at this point to include due to a drier air mass moving in
and possibility of minor cloud cover. The best chance for ground
fog formation appears to be MHK as about 0.75" of rain fell this
morning, increasing soil moisture.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg



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