Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 222306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Tightening low pressure area over the southeast CONUS this
afternoon with departing upper trough and associated convection
shifting south and east of the region. On the backside of the sfc
trough in northeast KS, northeast winds are strong this afternoon at
15 to 20 mph sustained, gusting to 30 mph at times. Expect the
pressure gradient to wane by early evening as sfc ridge currently
over northwest KS slides south and east this evening. Ridge axis
centers over the CWA by Sunday morning with dewpoints falling into
the lower 30s. Increasing dry air through the column and a shallow
inversion layer towards the sfc leads to lower confidence in any fog
developing. Despite the wet grounds south of the Interstate 35
corridor, guidance keeps the fog further south into OK and MO for
the time being. Patchy frost however remains possible, especially in
low lying areas. Forecast lows are generally in the middle to upper

Sunday is shaping out to be much more pleasant with calm winds
shifting to the south at around 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Skies
are mostly sunny, and with the stronger sun angle this time of
year, opted for highs a few degrees warmer than consensus guidance
into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Sunday night the lower boundary layer should be mixed as south winds
increase through the night as low pressure deepens over the western
high plains. Lows Sunday night should be in the mid to upper 40s.
Highs Monday should top out in the 70s with areas of north central
Kansas in the upper 70s ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A
wave moves out across the Central Plains Monday night as the frontal
boundary moves south across northeast Kansas on Tuesday. This will
bring a chance of showers to the area late Monday night and continue
through Tuesday night with the passage of the upper trough.
Temperatures cool back into the 60s on Wednesday as high pressure
builds in. Thursday, energy ejects out of the upper trough over the
Four Corners out into the Plains in the afternoon with an increasing
jet while moisture surges northward across the Southern Plains.
Frontal boundary may set up across southeast Kansas. ECMWF 12Z run
no longer has a negative tilt trough moving across Kansas Thursday
instead it keeps the upper trough over the Rockies before bringing
it out into the Plains next weekend, similar to the GFS. Severe
weather still is possible Thursday and into Friday across parts of
the area as shear and instability should be sufficient. Will
continue to monitor later runs for future updates.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.  Light and variable
winds are expected overnight after 01Z, prevailing from the south
after 18Z.




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