Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KTOP 090554
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1154 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Strong upper low over the Great Lakes has moved a bit east today
with high clouds moving into western and central portions of
Kansas over the western CONUS ridge. Pressure gradient over the
region remains fairly strong with cold air allowing for deep
mixing and Advisory level winds in both sustained and gust values.
Not seeming much overall change in speeds over the past few hours
but RAP, NAM, and GFS are similar in mixing heights decreasing as
pressure gradient relaxes. At this point see little reason to
change the Advisory but speeds should be decreasing in the 4-6 pm
window along with help from sunset.

Winds over the lower few thousand feet remain rather strong from the
NNW tonight into Tuesday but will steadily diminish in speeds.
Airmass doesn`t change much but will keep a small warm-up going
for Tuesday in some moderation and still decent mixing. Mid and
high cloud will continue to increase a bit but believe the
mixing keep impact of this minor on temps. Have kept lows on the
warm end of guidance with some wind again and the increasing
cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Northwest flow is forecast by the models to persist through next
weekend and into the first part of the work week. There continues
to be signs from the GFS of a couple low amplitude waves within
the northwest flow Thursday and Saturday. However the GFS also
struggles to saturate the airmass over the forecast area to
generate any precip. Therefore have continued with a dry forecast
for now. Then for Sunday and Sunday night, the ECMWF continues to
show poor continuity from run to run, now more amplified and
faster with a shortwave within the northwest flow. Meanwhile the
GFS remains rather modest with the open wave and still indicates
there is limited moisture with the system. The GFS was the better
solution for the previous couple systems and also has shown better
consistency over the last several runs. With this in mind I have
leaned a little more towards its solution with only some slight
chances for precip Sunday night. Confidence with this is low
however since there has been some variability in the operational
solutions.

Confidence in the temp forecast through the extended is not that
great either as the forecast area looks to remain within the
gradient between cold temps to the northeast and warm temps to the
west. The timing of the occasional surface ridges moving through
the plains will impact where this gradient sets up. Have made some
adjustment based on the latest timing of the fronts (warmer for
Wednesday, colder on Saturday), but the magnitude of these changes
may not be enough. In general I have not strayed far from the
model consensus for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Surface winds
will pick up after sunrise from the northwest at 15 to 20 KTS with
gusts of 20 to 30 KT through the early afternoon hours, then
slowly diminish through sunset. A few CU may develop in the
afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.