Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 252040
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63






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