784
FXUS63 KTOP 140532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this week with highs in the 90s and lows in the
  60s and 70s.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The next couple of days look dry with weak flow throughout all
levels of the atmosphere as we will be between an upper-level
trough departing to the east and weak riding building into the
west. By Wednesday, southerly moist flow and some warm-air
advection ahead of an approaching weak trough may be enough to
spark some isolated showers or thunderstorms across far eastern
Kansas. With each progressive run of models, the "front"
advertised for the middle of the week appears to be slower and
less defined. This weak cold/stationary front may be in the
area Wednesday evening into Friday morning. This may bring some
showers and thunderstorms to the area as several weak mid-level
waves move across, but widespread or strong thunderstorms may
be hard to come by given the weak forcing and transient nature
of upper-level ascent. This front is forecast to wash out by
Friday and may lift as a warm front into Nebraska and Iowa by
Saturday. With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture
in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more
than scattered coverage is favored. Without a strong push of
cooler or more dry air we will remain hot and humid through the
week and into the weekend with highs in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Main challenge is chance for reduced visibilities in BR around
sunrise. Light winds and clear skies will dominate, but
crossover temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are a few
degrees below even the coldest guidance low temperatures, so
visibilities below IFR are quite unlikely. Given consistency of
guidance, some similar issues upstream Sunday morning, and
scattered visibility reductions currently to the east, will go
ahead with a MVFR BR for TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Poage