Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 132138
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013
Latest satellite loop shows the upper trough moving into the Texas
Panhandle at 20Z. A dry punch was moving into southwest Missouri
taking the deeper moisture with it. Lift will continue this evening
across eastern Kansas ahead of the wave and associated PV anomaly
tonight. The surface trough extending northeast from the southwest
Kansas into southwest Iowa will move southeast across eastern Kansas
as the surface low moves southeast into east Texas by Saturday
morning. Models are pointing to a light precipitation event for much
of eastern Kansas with the higher amounts across southeast Kansas
and Missouri. As temperatures cool at the surface to below freezing
the chances of freezing drizzle will increase. Forecast soundings
from the models show a saturated lower layer with dry air aloft
through the night. The soundings also indicate no potential for snow
tonight as the dendritic snow zone remains dry so drizzle and
freezing drizzle will be likely to occur. The best lift shifts east
into Missouri after 06Z with the passage of the upper level trough
axis. Concerned that with cold air poised north in Nebraska
temperatures should fall back below freezing from northwest to
southeast this evening and overnight. Have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for tonight for parts of east central and northeast Kansas
from 9 pm to 6 am Saturday. Lows tonight will range from the teens
in north central Kansas to the middle 20s southeast of Interstate
35. North winds will also increase through the night.
Saturday will be dry and cold as high pressure moves into Kansas.
Although highs will be in the mid and upper 20s then north winds
will keep wind chills in the teens for the day. Skies will also be
clearing Saturday with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013
In the wake of the departing upper trough on Saturday...the flow aloft
will generally be a dry northwest flow transitioning to a more zonal
pattern across the Plains by Wednesday. This will translate to
little if any chance for precipitation as a baroclinic gradient from
northeast to southwest across the cwa through the period keeps
coolest temperatures across the northeast corner and warmest over
the southwest through Thursday. This will also allow for any
temporary backing of the low level flow to advect warmer air to the
east or northeast across the cwa. This will be the case on Monday
when readings rise from the 30s and 40s on Sunday to the 40s and
lower 50s on Monday...then again on Thursday with highs most areas
in the lower 50s ahead of another cold front Thursday night which
will lower highs Friday back into the 20s north to 30s east central.
The only mention of precipitation with this fcst will be the
possibility of drizzle within strong warm air advection ahead of the
cold front on Thursday...then the chance for rain and/or snow
Thursday night into Friday as the colder air pours into the area
ahead of the associated upper trough.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013
MVFR CIGS were redeveloping from Emporia through the TOP and FOE
terminals so kept cigs between 1000-2000 ft through 03Z.
Precipitation in the form of rain is expected through 03Z then
transition between 03Z and 06Z to areas of freezing drizzle
through about 09Z. Cigs transition to IFR after 03Z then back to
MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys after 10Z.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Saturday FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-054-055.