Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 051126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with high cigs
gradually building down toward 5000 feet. There is a small chance
to go to MVFR with some very light snow or rain showers but more
likely to stay precipitation free and VFR. Winds shift out of the
northwest by late afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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