Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252351 AAA

651 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Band of MVFR cigs/vsbys in rain that has been moving southeastward through
KMHK will be moving across the KTOP/KFOE terminals through 03z before
the rain ends/winds decrease and cigs return to VFR. Expect MVFR
cigs and rain to improve to vfr in KMHK in the 02Z-04Z time frame with
decreasing north winds. VFR conditions then expected at all terminals
beyond 04Z...although did maintain some potential for brief mvfr
vsbys in fog at KMHK 10-13Z. This will be dependant on whether
llvl mixing is weak enough for fog to form towards sunrise.




LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.