Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 160809

National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Weak sfc boundary noted this morning stretching from southwest KS
through central KS into southeast NE. This boundary was along the
edge of an area of high pressure over central NE where dewpoints
have fallen to the 40s. South of the boundary where scattered
stratus still lingers, dewpoints reside in the middle 60s where as
along the boundary, clearing skies and stout sfc inversion has
developed areas of fog. The highest confidence for dense fog
centers along and north of a line from Minneapolis, Belleville and
eastward to Marysville where visibilities are likely to fall at or
below a quarter of a mile through mid morning. Have gone ahead
with a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas.

Shortly after 12Z, southerly winds will quickly pick up above 10 kts
as an elongated sfc trough deepens over the western high plains in
response to an embedded shortwave trough. Scattered stratus over far
eastern areas may linger through the first half of the day before
clearing east under mostly sunny skies. Areas over north central KS
however should clear fairly quickly after the fog scatters out.
Forecast soundings in north central areas of the CWA have 925 mb
temps up to 25C mixing towards the sfc resulting in a few short term
models boosting highs closer to 90 degrees today. Have noted these
trends by raising highs to the upper 80s with low 80s seen
elsewhere. For tonight, winds stay up around 10 to 15 mph as warm
air streams northeast into the area, with overnight lows only
falling to the mid to upper 60s. After midnight, shallow moisture at
the sfc may result in patchy fog towards sunrise, however given the
steady winds, this may lift as stratus instead and have therefore
increased cloud coverage towards sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Monday continues to look warm with some MOS guidance suggesting
mid and upper 90s are possible for highs. The boundary layer would
have to mix out the capping inversion for this to occur, and
models have not shown mixing to be deep enough for those kind of
highs. Therefore have kept highs near record levels with upper
80s and around 90. But will need to watch out for the potential to
mix deeper and really get warm Monday.

A cold front is progged to move through the area Monday night with
no real chance for precip. The better dynamics are expected to
remain north of the forecast area with mid levels of the column really
drying out ahead of the front. So limited forcing and moisture
look to keep the frontal passage dry. Cooler weather is forecast
beginning Tuesday and continuing to trend cooler through mid week.
The NAM and ECMWF are showing the initial frontal boundary getting
hung up across east central KS with some moisture pooling just to
the south. As an inverted surface trough forms Tuesday night, some
weak moisture advection could lead to some elevated showers or
possibly a thunderstorm over east central KS Tuesday night. These
are some of the first solutions to really show this potential and
the GFS tends to be a little further south with the boundary and
moisture. So have some low end POPs and will keep an eye on this.

A second surge of cold air is expected to move in Wednesday night
and Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF are now in better agreement with
an open upper trough moving through the region rather than a low
cutting off as the pattern amplifies. Because of this have limited
small precip chances to Wednesday and Thursday when there may be
some shower activity as lapse rates steepen and cold air
advection causes some saturation. Still there does not appear to
be much instability, and dry air moves in my Thursday evening
leading to dry northwest flow through the rest of the forecast
period. Thursday should end up being the coolest day as the
secondary surge of cold air advects south. Although there are some
signs for southerly low level flow to redevelop by Friday allowing
temps to moderate by the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Made some timing adjustments to visby coming down in the overnight
hours and improved it a little quicker in the morning as winds
pick up. With MHK in a low spot and with calm winds will start out
MVFR and go with a tempo IFR condition before sunrise. Again
should clear out as mixing improves.


Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Temperatures are forecast to be near records Today and Monday.
The following are the record high temperatures as well as the
warmest lows for Topeka and Concordia. As of 3 am, Topeka`s low
for today has been 71 but there is still time for this to cool
off some more.

Record HighRecord Warmest Low
Today 88 66
Monday 90 66

Today 88 67
Monday 90 65




LONG TERM...Wolters
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