Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170433
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Frontal boundary moving slowly southeast across the forecast area.
Better energy and forcing are across the northern Plains, and
temperatures behind the front only a few degrees cooler than out
ahead.  Highs have reached near 80 across the southeast counties
with mid to upper 70s across the northwest.

Northwest winds move through eastern Kansas bu sunrise on Friday,
along with some mid level clouds. Enough wind that anticipate lows
to remain in the middle to upper 40s, save some lower 40s in low
protected spots.   Cool advection continues into the day on Friday
and highs from the middle 60s north to near 70 south are forecast,
as north to northwest winds continue through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Upper ridging builds east into the plains region from Friday
night into the weekend. A cooler airmass accompanied by a surface
Canadian high pressure sweeps southward into northeast KS bringing
the coolest temps on Saturday morning around 40 degrees. Airmass
does not modify until Sunday when high pressure nudges east and
southwesterly flow increases from an incoming weak trough. Warmer
air advecting into far northeast and east central areas lead to
increasing temps a few degrees Sunday afternoon into the upper 60s.
An upper trough axis digs southeast across the Great Lakes region,
stretching a weak piece of energy into Kansas. Cooling temps aloft
suggest ample dynamic lift for precip, however model soundings
throughout the CWA show very dry air in the lowest 700 mb. Mid to
high clouds are more likely so have removed the slight chances
across east central areas.

Broad upper ridge brings weak flow and quiet conditions Monday
through Wednesday evening as southerly flow gradually warms highs to
the upper 60s and lower 70s, above normal values for this time of
year. Next shortwave trough enters the western high plains on
Thursday with the GFS advertising a deeper, more progressive
system than the ECMWF. The 12Z run of the ECMWF is also
inconsistent with a weakening wave and stronger ridge to the east,
blocking much of the precip across central and western KS. For
now, will mention slight chances for rain until better consistency
is seen with the extended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR Conditions will continue through the period. Winds will
increase from the northwest after 15Z with higher gusts as mixing
occurs to around 875mb. Winds are expected to decrease after 22Z
as high pressure advances across eastern Kansas.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...53






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