Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220443

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mostly dry northwest flow at 500 mb this afternoon was carrying down
a few cirrus clouds, otherwise quiet conditions expected to
continue. Sfc trough axis centered over southeast Colorado increased
south winds at 10 to 15 mph over northeast Kansas. Wind gusts
occasionally near 20 mph are expected for the next hour or so before
waning to around 5 mph under clear skies. Lower dewpoints this
afternoon will temper the chances for fog this evening with the
shallow inversion layer and dewpoints this morning around 40
degrees. Lows Saturday morning are generally in the lower 40s.

No big changes for Saturday with the exception of slightly warmer
temperatures than today. Southwesterly winds back to the south at 10
to 15 mph throughout the area. Highs are slightly warmer in the
lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Generally a quiet pattern in the long term, save a system that is
forecast to move through later on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
dry front moves through on Sunday switching winds around to the
north then northeast and only cooling temperatures a few degrees
for Sunday night. Winds then swing back around from the south by
late Monday into Tuesday, and advect back northward just enough
instability for some thunder with the afternoon/evening system.
Temperatures continue in the low 70s for Wed and Thurs as cooler
high pressure moves over the state. Just a slight chance for rain
on Friday with GFS suggesting a frontal passage while EC remains


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Wind dropping in east central KS while staying up farther north
and west. Expect pressure gradient to be strong enough to keep fog
from forming in valley locations tonight. Winds will pick up some
Saturday afternoon, around 10KT with some higher gusts. Main
concern may be whether LLWS could occur by late evening Saturday
night as southwesterly low-level jet increases to over 40KT.
However, will leave out at this time due to marginal situation.


Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Area vegetation continues to slowly dry out, with latest percent
green grids coming in around 25-35%. Although afternoon relative
humidities over the weekend drop into the 30-45% range, the winds
are generally below 10kts and keep fire danger on the low to
moderate end. A front does push through on Sunday and switches
winds from south to northwest through the day.




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