Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252326

National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Complicated forecast across the area this evening and tonight. First
the outflow from earlier convection laid out a boundary that made it
just south of Interstate 70 early this afternoon. Latest regional
loop from radar shows the boundary washing out since 1930Z. Latest
objective surface analysis shows a surface low over southwest and
south central Kansas with an inverted trough extending northeast
into central Kansas. Dryline was located from the surface low south
across western Oklahoma. High resolution models continue to show
some differing scenarios with convection firing late this afternoon
near the surface low and diffuse boundary, then moving northeast
toward our southern counties near Abilene around 7 PM then they vary
with the placement of scattered storms through the evening hours.
The low level jet will be veered to the southwest and best lift
associated with it looks to focus across far northeast Kansas into
southern Iowa and western Missouri. MLCAPE varies at 20Z from around
1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg with shear of 25 to 35 kts. With the absence
of any forcing aloft this afternoon will likely need to monitor
boundaries for development late this afternoon and evening. Shear,
instability and moisture will be conducive for some strong to severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. A
tornado or two is also possible over portions of central Kansas
during the late afternoon and evening.

Thursday, The upper trough will move east across the Rockies while
ejecting out waves through the morning into the afternoon hours. If
the convection across northeast Kansas and western Missouri occurs
there would be an outflow boundary across the area for focus later
in the afternoon hours. The surface low will reform across southwest
Kansas with a frontal boundary extending northeast across north
central Kansas and into northeast Nebraska in the afternoon hours.
Latest model runs show shear around 30 to 40 kts by late afternoon
and good instability along with good moisture transport into north
central Kansas. Storms should develop along the frontal boundary and
move northeast across the area in the late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Challenging forecast in trying to differentiate enhanced
convective chances with discerable shortwaves. How exactly
convection will evolve on Thursday afternoon and evening is
uncertain given the many convective scenarios forecast by the
different short-range models. Depending on whether an MCS develops
Thursday afternoon, expect another surge of strong to severe
convection to affect portions of central and eastern KS during the
evening hours. While low-level shear strengthens during the
evening, 0-6 km shear decreases so messy convective modes are

After that, there is a decent chance for quiet weather from late
Thursday night until mid Friday afternoon, when an apparent weak
shortwave trough and peak heating may set off additional
thunderstorms over eastern KS. While the shear does not look as
strong, there is enough that organized convection may again occur
with possible severe weather.

More significant shortwave trough and associated surface low then
cross the area late Friday night and early Saturday with more
chances of thunderstorms.

Then a more stagnant flow pattern sets up for later in the
weekend through at least the middle of next week. While winds
aloft and vertical wind shear weaken considerably, decreasing
organized severe thunderstorm chances, slow moving upper troughs
interacting with an environment with little convective inhibition will
produce periods of thunderstorms. Given the expected slow
movement of the storms, and repeated heavy rains in some areas,
areas of flooding are possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Another difficult forecast for the terminals even in the near term
period. Models indicate that thunderstorms may move through
northeast Kansas between 00Z-04Z. With lack of confidence in
storm coverage have still opted to only include VCTS during this
time frame. Fog looks possible early morning and have kept
previous forecast for this potential. VFR ceilings are then
forecast through the end of the period.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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