Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 250438
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main concern for the forecast period is fog potential overnight
through Sat. morning. Shallow MVFR fog occurring at KTOP will
lower to IFR and LIFR aft 09Z as patchy dense fog settles into the
low lying area. KFOE is more mixed with southwest winds around 6
kts through 09Z. Should expect these winds to weaken enough near
the surface trough axis to develop predominant MVFR visibilities.
Occasional IFR cigs are possible through sunrise where a TEMPO was
inserted. KMHK is more uncertain in fog development as latest
guidance is hinting at lower dewpoint temperatures just north of
the terminal. May still see patchy MVFR cigs however confidence is
low at this point. Expect fog to dissipate by 15Z with light winds
and VFR conditions through remainder of period.