Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KTOP 310845
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

High pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into Kansas this
morning at 08Z. Stratus cloud deck was gradually building westward
across eastern Kansas as winds in the 925mb-850mb layer were out of
the east northeast as seen in VWP. Forecast soundings show clouds
breaking up later this morning with mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon hours. The surface high will move off to the east today
allowing for east to southeast winds to develop across eastern
Kansas. Highs today should top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with the warmer temps in north central Kansas.

Tonight, moisture will increase across western and central Kansas as
the low level jet develops. Northwest flow will continue aloft as
the upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop across western parts of Kansas and
Nebraska then move southeast into central and perhaps north central
Kansas after midnight. Dry air in the low levels will need to be
overcome and storms may have a hard time progressing as far east as
highway 81 as the moisture axis should remain focused mainly over
western Kansas. Have maintained slight chances of thunderstorms
after midnight in north central Kansas. Lows tonight will cool into
the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Any elevated thunderstorms should be ending Monday morning with
meager inflow. Though mid/high cloud from dissipating convection
could last well through the morning, expect highs to modify a few
more degrees into the lower to middle 70s. Surface trough along the
Rockies could spark thunderstorms there Monday afternoon but
environment to support them this far east is not great, though 850mb
winds around 30kts not far west could bring dying convection into the
far west. The dryline/trough sets up farther east Tuesday afternoon
with relatively good agreement in a shortwave trough over-topping it by
the evening hours. Better low level jet speeds and theta-e values
could support convection well into the area overnight Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Have continued the warming trend into these
periods with south flow persisting, though confidence in specifics
is low given some potential for overnight convection/remnant cloud
to linger into the afternoon.

Weak ridging aloft takes shape into the late week with a weak front
likely sinking in around Friday night. Will have highest chances
near this period, but maintain smaller chances through much of the
forecast with still more opportunities for MCS activity to reach the
area from the northwest where PW values look to be well above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is with the stratus deck that is
lingering across some of the TAF sites. Clouds have scattered out
near KMHK while KTOP/KFOE remain on the edge of the overcast MVFR
deck. While model soundings suggest this scattering of the MVFR
clouds to continue for a few more hours, they show the stratus
building westward back into the area and remaining in place through
much of the morning hours. Short-range models continue to show the
potential for high-end IFR cigs to develop near KTOP/KFOE around
sunrise with some slightly reduced visibilities possible. This
stratus should lift and diminish by late morning/early afternoon
with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period.
Expect winds to veer to the east through the morning hours as
surface high pressure approaches the region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.