Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 171720
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Latest satellite water vapor imagery shows and elongated through
extending from Nebraska south to the Baja of Mexico. Some embedded
waves were within the trough with a small wave moving northeast out
of New Mexico. Extensive cloud shield continues across much of
central and eastern Kansas. Drier air was advecting into north
central Kansas and expect clouds to gradually erode from west to
east through the day today. Broad high pressure at the surface will
build into eastern Kansas today and then gradually move off to the
east overnight with winds shifting back to the southwest across
north central and northeast Kansas. Highs today will top out in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Tonight with light winds and few clouds expect
good radiational cooling with lows dipping back into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are expected Wednesday into
Thursday as surface high pressure shifts eastward into the
southeastern U.S., with southerly winds aiding in pushing high
temperatures into the 40s and 50s.  Models show the potential for
some light rain or drizzle Thursday night into Friday as a weak
embedded shortwave lifts into the area.  However, model soundings
show limited available moisture and lift, so only have slight chance
PoPs.  Have increasing PoPs though by Friday night as a more well-
defined shortwave trough lifts northeastward across the CWA,
providing more ample moisture and lift across north central to
northeast KS.  At this time, have kept precipitation in the form of
rain with low temperatures only dropping into the mid/upper 30s, but
will need to continue to monitor these conditions.

While conditions should be dry on Saturday, models show another
shortwave trough over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday becoming a
closed mid-level low as it progresses eastward into Arkansas/Texas
on Sunday.  There are still some model discrepancies with the exact
tracking of this low, and thus where any associated precipitation
may develop.  At this time, some wrap-around precipitation may clip
portions of the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday night
with a mix of rain and snow possible.  Once the large area of
surface low pressure shifts east of the area by Monday, models are
not showing much in the way of caa with high temperatures remaining
unseasonably mild in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

MVFR cigs continue to push eastward across the area. As of 17Z the
back edge of the stratus was along and east of a Seneca to Emporia
line. VFR cigs will return after 19Z for the Topeka terminals.
Patchy fog is expected between 05Z and 14Z tonight, resulting in
MVFR visibilities.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Baerg



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