Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 290107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH NW WINDS AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR NOT FAR AWAY.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN TROPICAL PLUME OVER AZ/NM. HEAT ADVISORY
WORKING OUT WELL WITH 20Z APPARENT TEMPS 103-109 MOST LOCATIONS.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING. CONVERGENCE
ALONG EITHER BOUNDARY IS NOT STRONG BUT ENOUGH CAPE AND THEN
DOWNDRAFT CAPE FOR A WIND THREAT FROM ANY DECENT STORM. SHEAR ALOFT
REMAINS MEAGER FOR ONLY SMALL CONCERNS FOR LARGE HAIL. SOMEWHAT
LOWER LCL`S AND SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED SURFACE WINDS BRING AN
INCREASED TORNADO CONCERN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST, BUT THIS CONCERN IS
STILL RATHER LOW. BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW IMMEDIATELY ALOFT FOR AT LEAST MINOR
TRAINING/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH PW VALUES
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND INFLOW INTO/OVER THE FRONT IS MEAGER.
CONTINUED LACK OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS A
DRYING TREND THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
TROPICAL FEED ALOFT. HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH APPARENT TEMPS
15-20 DEGREES COLDER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

850 MB FRONT HANGS ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST, AS
RECENT RUNS FROM THE NAM SHOW STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THEREFORE MOST PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE THOUGH IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AREA OF LIFT WHILE A WEAK
INCOMING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND SPREADS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
REPEATS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION RESIDES ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WEAK
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS VARY SOME, BUT MOSTLY GIVE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IF CLOUD COVERAGE LINGERS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, HIGHS
MAY BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.  LONG TERM GUIDANCE
ISN`T IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE, WHEN AND HOW LONG PRECIP
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OR LAST.  HOWEVER, NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW THAT
COULD DEVELOP PROBABLY SOME WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUNDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING
MAINLY ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  OUTSIDE
OF THIS, MONDAY INTO THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME COULD SEE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT START TO PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN KS WHILE A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO
DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS COULD BE THE
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH THE
BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, AN MCS
FEATURE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  IT WOULD BE TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE AT THIS POINT HOW
WELL ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP OR HOLD TOGETHER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAFS THIS PERIOD. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLY LINGERING A BIT LONGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AS WELL WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY AT THIS POINT. MAY
STILL REQUIRE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FILLS IN AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...BOWEN/DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE


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