Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KTOP 240902
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Early this morning a weak mid-level trough over Canada was beginning
to deepen southward into the Northern Plains.  This advancing trough
will push the area of surface low pressure currently over the
Northern Plains further southward into the Central Plains today,
with an associated cold front tracking into the area by this
afternoon. Short-range models show this boundary moving into north
central KS by early afternoon and exiting southeast of the CWA by
early evening.  Plenty of low-level dry air will remain in place
today with the frontal passage, so only expect some mid/high-level
clouds to build in behind the front this afternoon.  A modest
pressure gradient will be present both ahead of and behind the cold
front.  As a result, expect southwesterly winds to quickly increase
this morning to 15 to 20mph with gusts of 25-30mph before winds veer
to the northwest behind the front this afternoon.  The combination
of these gusty winds and dry conditions will result in some very
high fire danger conditions this afternoon. Refer to the Fire
Weather discussion below for further details. Despite the frontal
passage this afternoon, decent mixing ahead of the front should
allow 15-17C 850mb temperatures to mix down to the surface. However,
short-range model guidance continues to support further
compressional warming ahead of the cold front which may push high
temperatures near or above record readings in the low/mid 70s. Refer
to the Climate section below for further details. Northwesterly
winds behind the front will support gradual CAA into the region
tonight with low temperatures dropping into the mid/upper 30s.
Models show the potential for an embedded shortwave to develop
within the northwesterly flow aloft early Saturday morning,
resulting in some increasing mid-level saturation.  While some model
guidance suggests some very light precipitation may develop
(primarily across central to southeast KS), model soundings still
show an abundance of dry air in the low-levels, so have stayed with
a dry forecast across the southern portions of the CWA for Saturday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The weekend periods continue to look benign. Modified Pacific air
moves in for Saturday with temperatures much cooler though still
above normal. Warm air advection develops Saturday night into Sunday
night with southwest winds returning Sunday afternoon. Surface
parcels will continue to be sourced from the back side of the high
and allow RH values to fall into the 30s for somewhat elevated fire
weather conditions. Monday continues to pose the greater fire
weather concern as shortwave energy pushes east across western
portions of the continent. Have again leaned on the warmer and
windier guidance with another potential record max temp today and
Advisory wind speeds not implausible. Boundary layer moisture is
more substantial and should keep Red Flag conditions in check. There
are considerable model differences in the timing and track of the
southern shortwave as it moves through the region in the Tuesday to
Wednesday periods. There is enough agreement for higher chances
around Tuesday night but the airmass with this system is again
rather modified and the chances for any measurable wintry
precipitation are quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Not much change from prev forecast thinking. Profiler data is
showing the low level jet strengthening while surface OBs have
light winds at the surface. So will maintain a mention of LLWS.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail with a FROPA
moving across the area through the afternoon. It looks to be
through TOP and FOE around 00Z. Don`t think there is much chance
for precip with the FROPA as forecast soundings keep the lower
troposphere pretty dry.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Southwesterly winds are expected to increase by mid-morning ahead of
the approaching cold front, with sustained winds of 15-20mph and
gusts of 20-30mph into the afternoon hours.  These winds will weaken
some as the cold front tracks southeastward across the CWA, but
expect the northwesterly winds behind the front to increase once
again to around 15-20mph with gusts to at least 25mph. With surface
temperatures soaring into the 70s and dewpoint temperatures staying
in the upper 30s/low 40s, afternoon RH values will likely drop into
the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across the CWA.  The
combination of these dry conditions and gusty winds will result in
very high fire danger conditions, primarily across north central and
east central KS where the winds are expected to be the strongest
today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record Highs Today

Topeka: 76 degrees set back in 1990 (Forecast: 76)
Concordia: 73 degrees set back in 1990 and 2011 (Forecast: 75)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Record Highs Monday

Topeka: 71 degrees set back in 1998 (Forecast: 69)
Concordia: 69 degrees set back in 1933 (Forecast: 70)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke
CLIMATE...Hennecke/65



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.