Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 150916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

At 4 AM, rain continued across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, while rain was ending across the western third of the
CWA. Temperatures were generally in the 30s to lower 40s.

The focus for today will be the low pressure system moving through
the Great Lakes region. The deformation zone helping to bring the
precipitation to our CWA will gradually pull off to the east
today, allowing the rain to end from west to east. Skies were
already clearing across the northwest part of the CWA, with clear
skies at International Falls. We will continue to see skies clear
from west to east, bringing a fair amount of sunshine to most
areas as the morning wears on.

While one system exits, another moves in, as a trough moves across
Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Will add mention of some
showers to the west early this afternoon, and to the western half
of the CWA during the remainder of the afternoon. Although the
chance of showers should diminish tonight, we could see some light
showers linger across the central and eastern portions of the CWA
during the evening.

Highs today will range from the mid 40s in the Arrowhead to the
upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Cloud cover will again decrease from west to east tonight, as high
pressure moves in behind the departing surface trough. Lows will
range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday is shaping up to be a quiet day, with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Arrowhead
to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The Northland will have a dry and relatively warm week. A low/mid-
level thermal ridge will build into the Northland Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A strong cold front, associated with a low well north in
Canada, will sweep through the Northland Wednesday afternoon and
evening, bringing a brief cool down for the middle of the week.
However, another wave of warm air will build into the region
Thursday into Saturday. This extended period of southerly flow will
bring 850 hpa temperatures to 15 to 18 degrees Celsius! Model
guidance for surface high temperatures may be too weighted towards
climatology. Increased the forecasts a bit over the previous
forecast. Highs will likely be in the middle to upper 60s for much
of the Northland late this week, about 15 degrees above seasonal

Another surface low in Canada will likely bring a cold front through
the Northland sometime Saturday. There could be very light rain with
its passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

As the area of low pressure pulls off to the east, the rain will
diminish across the terminals. A gradual clearing trend follows. A
mix of MVFR and VFR cigs is expected prior to the clearing. A
period of IFR is possible at HYR. An improvement to VFR at all
locations is expected through the rest of the forecast. By
afternoon, an upper level trof will cross over the terminals. A
few showers are possible, but differences in timing and coverage
from the models precludes nothing more than a VCSH mention.


DLH  48  33  55  41 /  20  30   0   0
INL  48  27  58  38 /  30  30   0   0
BRD  50  33  59  40 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  52  33  57  39 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  52  34  57  42 /  60  20   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.