Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141729
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild on Friday ahead of a strong clipper that will impact the
  area Friday evening into Saturday.

- Rain changing to snow is expected across the Arrowhead, Iron Range
  and along the International Border Friday evening into Saturday.
  New snowfall accumulations will be an inch or less.

- Strong northwest winds Friday night and Saturday with widespread
  gusts in excess of 30 mph.

- Lake-effect snow showers persist into the new week along the
  South Shore, but most areas remain dry with near to slightly
  below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Fairly benign conditions were in place across the Northland and
Upper Midwest early this morning. Some cloud cover was observed
on satellite across the southern half of the region in
association with low pressure well to the south across the
Central Plains. Ridging will remain off to our west today into
Friday, keeping dry and mild conditions in place. An upper
trough will move through Thursday night into Friday, but nothing
is expected with this trough other than an increase in clouds.
Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with light
winds away from Lake Superior, although some gustier winds will
be present at times across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.

A pattern shift starts to arrive Friday night as the northern
stream of the jet dives southward to our west. A clipper will
move from the western Great Lakes for Friday night to just south
of James Bay Saturday night. Rain showers will spread across
much of the region Friday evening before changing over to snow
and rain/snow mix during the early morning hours as colder air
starts to spill into the area behind a cold front. Light snow
showers will linger through Saturday night from the Arrowhead
into northwest Wisconsin in the cyclonic flow regime behind the
system. Any accumulations from the synoptic snow will be around
an inch or less, highest across the Arrowhead.

With northwesterly winds continuing to bring more seasonable
air to the region Sunday into Monday, lake-effect snow showers
will linger across the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt, mainly
across northern Ashland and northern Iron counties. The signal
for snowfall in this area continues to increase as we get closer
and the potential for an inch or snow or more across northern
Iron County is up to around 70% with the potential for at least
2 inches of snow slightly over 50%. With the lake nearly ice
free and 850mb temperatures around -13 to -15C, lake effect
chances may continue to trend up. Highs Sunday and Monday will
be in the 20s and lower 30s, which is actually slightly below
normal. Temperatures then begin to moderate heading into midweek
with low chances for precipitation as another clipper moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR/IFR stratus over Lake Superior will continue to move to the
southwest through the afternoon and early evening. This may
(40-50% chance) impact KDLH and KHYR (20% chance). Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast across northwest Wisconsin and
northeast Minnesota this afternoon. MVFR stratus will begin to
spread into northeast Minnesota from the west this evening and
tonight ahead of strong low pressure that will impact the area
Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
will be possible across the western arm of Lake Superior today,
highest near the Twin Ports, before diminishing this evening and
tonight. Waves of 3 to 5 feet will be possible in the western
arm, Apostle Islands and areas east of Chequamegon Bay with this
winds today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Silver Bay
to the Twin Ports and all of the South Shore and Chequamegon
Bay.

Winds turn southwesterly for Friday and increase to 10 to 20
knots with a few gusts to around 22 knots. This should remain
just below small craft criteria. Winds will then further
increase Friday night into Saturday first from the southwest and
then from the northwest as a cold front passes through the area.
Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely during this time
period and gales will also be possible during the day on
Saturday with the northwesterlies.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     143>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...BJH


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