Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141008
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A quiet weekend with high pressure covering the forecast area
today through Sunday. A WNW flow aloft today will transition to
a westerly flow by tonight. A small upper level impulse will move
along the Canadian border tonight, but due to a lack of moisture,
will only see some passing high clouds. Warm air advection begins
on Sunday with 850mb temps warming from -4C in the morning, to 2C
in the afternoon. Max temps will reach the teens today, and the
20s on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the single digits below
zero, single digits above zero near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

An area of low pressure will move through the region early next week
and temperatures will warm well above normal toward the end of the
week.

Northwest flow over the region Saturday night will shift quasi-zonal
and eventually southwesterly through early next week. A shortwave
trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Sunday morning and should bring an increase in cloud cover. A few
isolated flurries are possible along the International Border. A
much milder Pacific airmass will continue to build into the region
Saturday night with milder temperatures through the second half of
the weekend. Highs on Sunday will top out in the 20s across the
Northland, with even milder temperatures on Monday.

A deep longwave trough over the western United States will shift
eastward on Sunday and cross into the Plains on Monday. Another 24
hours have passed and the deterministic and ensemble guidance has
invented a new solution for the evolution of this system. The cutoff
upper low will drive into northern Mexico and then lift northeastward
toward the western Great Lakes Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. As
the upper low moves through Kansas and Nebraska on Monday, a northern
stream shortwave will move out of the Northern Rockies and phase with
the approaching system. The addition of the approaching shortwave
will pull the upper low a bit farther north than previously expected.
Another northern stream shortwave will move across the Northern
Plains on Tuesday night, kicking the earlier trough eastward a bit
quicker than previously expected. Precipitation will spread up the
Mississippi River Valley Sunday night and Monday, moving into
Northland early Monday morning. With the warmer airmass in place
ahead of this system, there is a potential for a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain, with inland portions of northwest Wisconsin
most favored for the mixed precip. The band of precipitation will
extend as far west as central Minnesota before pulling away to the
east on Tuesday. Behind the departing low winds are expected to veer
southwesterly and wind speeds over western Lake Superior will
increase markedly.

Wednesday night through the end of the week will feature a shift
back to a quasi-zonal pattern aloft with temperatures warming
through Friday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to climb
into the lower to upper 30s, a welcome reprieve from the cold of the
past few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Clouds remained over portions of northeast Minnesota and all of
Wisconsin late this evening due to continued warm air advection.
There has been clearing though with both KHIB and KINL seeing
clear skies as of 0530Z. Clearing will continue from west to east
tonight but it will be slow. There has not been much for
precipitation except for some lake effect snow along portions of
the North Shore and that will be ending over the next couple
hours. Ceilings will continue to be mainly VFR but some brief
MVFR ceilings will also be possible with even lower ceilings
northeast of KTWM due to lake processes. VFR conditions are then
expected Saturday into Saturday evening.

LLWS will continue into the early morning hours, mainly impacting
northern Minnesota, and we continue that mention in the
KDLH/KHIB/KINL TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17   1  24  11 /   0   0   0   0
INL  13  -2  26   9 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  19  -3  26  11 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  19  -4  24  10 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  21   3  28  14 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde


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