Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The persistent and slow moving upper level trough will continue
to affect the area, with a shortwave moving south across southern
Manitoba as of early this morning. At the surface, a trough axis
extends from a surface low over Lake Huron, west across Lake
Superior to over far northern Minnesota. Where the shortwave and
surface trough overlap, there is an area of showers, which will
slowly drop east-southeast along the surface trough as the
shortwave continues to move southeast through the northwest flow.
It exits the area tonight, with precipitation chances continuing
into the evening. Have placed the highest pops over far northern
Minnesota today, shifting to mainly the tip of the Arrowhead
tonight. Cool temperatures will continue today, and as we will
have the same airmass as we had yesterday. Guidance is once again
depicting very cool temperatures for today as they were yesterday,
but yesterday`s highs were a few degrees warmer than guidance,
and I have gone a little warmer than guidance for today. Clearing
skies later tonight will allow temperatures to fall much cooler
than this morning, and expect lows in the low to mid 40s.

The upper low shifts off to the east for Monday, with a surface
ridge building into southwestern Minnesota. This should allow more
sunshine into at least the western half of the forecast area, and
the more westerly flow at the surface should help boost
temperatures into the mid and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Summary: Ridging at the surface and aloft is expected to bring drier
conditions Monday night and Tuesday. A more unsettled pattern will
take shape Tuesday night and continue through the rest of the week
with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Mid-level ridging will continue Monday night in the wake of the
departing trough. Surface high pressure will slide southeastward
through the Upper Midwest Monday night and Tuesday bringing clearing
skies and a break in the precipitation chances. Winds will turn
southerly as the ridge axis passes through the Northland
establishing a warm and moist return flow. A potent shortwave trough
is forecast to move across the Northern Plains and into the Upper
Midwest Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms
are forecast to develop over the eastern Dakotas Tuesday afternoon
and evening, and move into northern Minnesota Tuesday night.
Stability and shear parameters point to a general thunderstorm
threat, but a few storms may be strong or severe overnight. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday through
Wednesday night as the trough moves into northern Minnesota. Surface
low pressure and an associated cool front will advance eastward
during the day. There are questions as to how quickly/whether skies
and precipitation will clear in the wake of the nocturnal
convection. Should skies clear, some of the storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening could be strong or severe. Deterministic
guidance keeps clouds and showers in the picture, and confidence in
strong storms is lower this morning than yesterday at this time.

In the wake of the mid-week shortwave trough, a continued active
pattern is expected with a slow-moving upper level trough moving
into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains through Friday.
Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the main area of low
pressure keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
picture each day through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A few lingering showers are present across the region, in
particular KINL. Focus for the next six hours are on a shortwave
feature moving into the forecast area that will impact the
majority of sites with rain, reduced visibility, and lower
ceilings. Many sites will get down into MVFR or IFR conditions and
the consensus blend of short term guidance was handling the
ceilings best as of late. Concerned with the ceilings at KHIB
getting down to LIFR so added a TEMPO for overcast at 300 ft. Some
gusty winds are possible Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
across multiple sites.


DLH  59  46  67  48 /  60  30  10   0
INL  59  44  68  47 /  70  30   0   0
BRD  63  45  69  47 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  62  45  68  46 /  50  20  10   0
ASX  62  46  69  49 /  70  40  20   0




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