Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE MN
AND NRN WI...AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE COLD AIR MASS THAT MOVED IN SATURDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-1 TO +2 DEG C. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND UPPER 20S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND IN THE
FAVORABLE INLAND LOCATIONS OF NW WI. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
THE PRESENCE OF EAST WINDS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
THROUGH NRN WI. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO KEEP THE WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLED FROM
THE SFC. IF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
INVERSION TEMPS WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY A STRONG
E/NE WIND WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE AND INLAND ON THE COOL SIDE. TEMPERATURES
INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AND COOL...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE EXPANDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO COVER MOST OF OUR CWA...AND HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND AREAS OF NW WI...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THEY MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL TOO MUCH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL POP...ESPECIALLY WEST ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
OVER THAT PERIOD AS WELL. THE NAM DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF TOWARD
THAT AREA...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT SO MUCH. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE
THE COMPLETE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. AS
THE STRONG AND VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATES TO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE WORK ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE CWA. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID WEEK INTO SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF SPECIFIC BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST
GUIDANCE BUILDS THE HIGH EASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 18Z ON
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KHYR...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT KINL...AS IT IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. OTHER SITES WILL SEE WINDS WEAKEN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  53  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  33  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  36  62  40  68 /   0  10   0   0
HYR  29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  30  56  31  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     MNZ011-012-019>021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     WIZ001>004-007>009.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     WIZ006.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL






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