Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271729 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  58  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
INL  77  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  50
BRD  74  58  76  56 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  74  58  70  54 /   0  20  30  20
ASX  76  58  73  55 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK



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