Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240106
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

With the cold front still in the Red River Valley of the North,
have delayed the pops a few hours across the western portion of
the forecast area. Otherwise, cirrus shield covers much of the
area with a bit of cumulus/stratus underneath. A cluster of storms
have formed over Roseau county, but are diminishing. Rest of the
forecast in the ballpark.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cold front will move across the Northland from west to east
tonight into early Wednesday resulting in a chance for showers and
storms and some relief from today`s hot and humid weather.

On the synoptic scale a surface low has developed across southern
Manitoba in response to an approaching mature low over southern
Saskatchewan. A cold front will approach from the west as this low
lifts out tonight into tomorrow, possibly resulting in showers and
storms. Ahead of the cold front conditions have been hot, humid, and
breezy - dew points in the mid to upper 60s making it feel
oppressive in some parts of the area. This warm airmass across the
Upper Midwest is resulting in a very capped environment; elevated
instability is impressive with MUCAPE at 2000 to near 3000 j/kg, but
with 150-250 j/kg CIN precluding any surface-based storms from
initiating. Large-scale forcing will be weak through tonight into
tomorrow as the main upper low remains well off to the west, and the
strong warm air advection from today becomes weak overnight as
slightly cooler air begins to advect in from the west. An isolated
evening storm along the cold front remains a possibility, but any
convection that develops will have a tough time sustaining itself
because of the poor wind profiles which depict weak winds at mid-
levels. The best chance for precip in the short term will be across
northwest Wisconsin where thunderstorms across southern/central
Minnesota will move into late tonight - where wind profiles do
appear more favorable for sustaining overnight convection.

On Wednesday the cold front will move across the Northland from west
to east, finally pushing out the more humid airmass. Highs in the
70s to near 80s with a west wind. Clearing skies behind the front
will result in a sunny day for most of north-central Minnesota, with
decreasing clouds across the MN Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

By Wednesday night the northland will be under some much cooler
air filtering down from Canada behind the front. 8h temps are
forecast into the single digits by Thursday morning with the cold
air lingering into Friday morning. With high pressure over the
region there will be little in the way of precipitation. However,
the upper level Canadian trough will be swinging through the
northland on Thursday which could help pop up a few showers in the
north. We are watching the next upper level closed Canadian low
due to make landfall from the Gulf of Alaska off the Pacific Coast
early in the weekend. This will lower heights over the continental
U. S and a trough over the nations mid section over the weekend.
As with this current system going through tonight, the surface low
will ride up through the Dakotas and into MN with a very strong
low level jet ahead of it, and increase the chance of showers and
storms Friday night through Monday. In this extended period the
models are in really good agreement in the upper level pattern
with the northland on the northern periphery of a large ridge that
will cover much of the southern U. S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR at the start of the forecast as some cumulus clouds underneath
a cirrus shield covers much of the southern terminals. Meanwhile,
the cold front expected to bring showers and possibly some
thunderstorms has moved into the Red River Valley of the North at
00Z. This cold front is forecast to move through the area
Wednesday morning. The rain and thunder will occur ahead of the
front and may result in some MVFR or IFR ceilings/visibilities
with the rain and some fog. Behind the front, VFR is expected with
gusty west surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  79  57  69 /  30  20   0  10
INL  64  79  54  67 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  64  78  55  68 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  66  79  55  70 /  80  40   0  10
ASX  66  82  59  71 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF



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