Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
714 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The Northland`s cool and damp weather pattern will continue
through Tuesday. An area of low pressure over northeast Ontario
will shift east into Quebec tonight, while an upper-level low near
the Minnesota/Ontario border will drop south through Minnesota
tonight. The cool and humid northerly flow, combined with the
upper low`s cyclonic flow, could produce some light rain or
sprinkles ahead of and in the wake of the passing upper low
through Tuesday. Weak surface-based instability could develop
Tuesday afternoon from any heating from brief pockets of
sunshine, but the potential for instability looks too low to even
warrant placing isolated thunder in the forecast.

Tonight`s cloud will prop up temperatures to the upper 30s and low
40s. Much of the region will be limited to highs in the low to
middle 50s Tuesday, about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.
Parts of northwest Wisconsin and the Borderland near and west of
International Falls will reach the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

An upper level low closes off near the IA/IL border by 12Z
Wednesday. Pieces of embedded energy will rotate around the low
and bring some chances of showers Tuesday night. The showers will
end from northwest to southeast as the upper low moves farther
southeast and surface/upper level ridging begin to build across
the region. Forecast minimum temps for Tuesday night and Wednesday
night are warmer than previously expected and have removed the
frost potential. The aforementioned ridging will be nearby through
Thursday. The forecast area transitions to a wet pattern Thursday
night through Sunday. This is the result of the next closed upper
low moving from Saskatchewan Thursday night to northwest Ontario
Sunday. Short wave energy will drift around this low and across
the region during this time. There will be enough
instability/forcing/moisture to generate a few thunderstorms
Friday afternoon. Max temps will be near normal to slightly above
during the long range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A large area of low pressure will continue to rotate through the
western Great Lakes region throughout the TAF period. We will see
generally VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions at the start of the
night, but CIG`s and VSBY`s are expected to lower overnight,
resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions for the remainder of the night
and into Tuesday morning. CIG`s and VSBY`s should then improve
with daytime heating, resulting in mainly VFR by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  53  40  58 /  20  30  20   0
INL  44  57  35  68 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  56  41  65 /  30  50  20   0
HYR  38  58  41  63 /  20  30  10  10
ASX  40  54  39  56 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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