Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151804 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1204 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Issued at 1204 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

An updated aviation discussion is below covering the 18z TAF


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

At 345 AM, it was mostly cloudy across the Northland. The
exception was in portions of the southern CWA, where there were
some clear areas. Temperatures ranged from the middle 20s across
the international border region, to the lower to middle 30s in
southern portions of the CWA.

A compact shortwave moved across the southern CWA early this
morning, bringing a brief period of fairly intense snowfall, along
with some spotty rain. This shortwave had basically moved out of
the CWA as of 345 AM. Meanwhile, a cold front was dropping
southward across the Northland this morning. Winds were
west/southwest across the south, with north winds from the Iron
Range northward to the border. Some spotty snow showers persisted
across the north and in south central Canada.

For today, the cold front will continue to drop southward across
the region. Scattered snow showers will be possible for much of
the area, although the precipitation chance will end from north to
south today into this evening. High pressure will then build in
tonight, with much colder temperatures expected across the
Northland. Wind chill values are expected to be in the 25 to 35
below zero range across much of northeast Minnesota, and we may
once again need wind chill advisories across this area.

Friday is shaping up to be a mostly sunny day, with temperatures
rising through the teens by afternoon. This is some 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The upper pattern will undergo a transition from west to northwest
flow aloft early in the period to southwest Sunday night into
Monday. There will be several chances for snow, mainly Friday night
through Tuesday.

A broad upper trough will move over the Northland Friday night and a
chance for light snow will accompany the trough, mainly Friday night
into Saturday morning. Little snow accumulation will be possible for
most areas. Highs Saturday will range from 20 to 30.

An upper trough will dig into the western CONUS Saturday night into
Sunday with a baroclinic zone over or near the Northland. The upper
trough will continue to move east Sunday into Sunday night and the
upper flow will back to southwest. A broad area of low pressure will
stretch form the Southern Plains Sunday night into Iowa and it will
lift north and east Monday into Tuesday. There remains some
significant differences among the models with the track of the low
but overall they are in better agreement than 24 hours ago. A quick
burst of snow is expected to develop Sunday due to a shortwave ahead
of the upper trough and frontogenesis. More snow is expected Monday
into Tuesday as the upper trough and surface low near the region. A
couple inches of snow will be possible Sunday. Additional snowfall
is looking more likely Monday into Tuesday, especially over the
southeast half of the Northland and several inches looks possible
and perhaps some higher amounts depending on the track of the low.
After the snow Sunday through Tuesday, a dry period is expected
Wednesday into Thursday due to high pressure for most areas.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range from 10 to 15 over
northern Minnesota to the upper teens to lower twenties over
northwest Wisconsin.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Widespread 1500-2500 foot ceilings and a few flurries persist
early this afternoon in the wake of a cold front and weak
disturbance that moved through the region overnight. MVFR ceilings
should continue to slowly rise and/or dissipate through this
afternoon and early evening, and will hang on longest at
KBRD/KHYR. Winds gusting above 20 knots are also expected to
diminish between 22-05z this evening. Thereafter, VFR conditions
are expected for the duration of this TAF period.


DLH  30  -6  17   9 /  20   0   0  30
INL  21 -14  17   8 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  32  -7  19  12 /  20   0   0  20
HYR  33  -5  18   7 /  20   0   0  20
ASX  33  -1  20   9 /  30  20   0  20



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