Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED FOR MOST RECENT WIND TRENDS. UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS STAY HIGHER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY WE ELECTED TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO WAA
AND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 0.8 INCHES BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW FROM
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTH. SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY INITIALLY SUNDAY...AND WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WE
HELD ONTO SOME SMALL POPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND WE HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LEAD S/W TROF AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DRIVE RATHER STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
MARGINAL RETURN OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
MODEL SPREAD OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN A FEW HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG
DEPENDING ON THE PARTICULAR MODEL OR ENSEMBLE MEMBER.  THUS..THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE DULUTH CWA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN LOBE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES ENEWD.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN ON MONDAY..THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
PRODUCES 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 60-120M. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MN..WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH.  FOR THE MOST
PART..THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF
THE PRECIP TO FALL IN THE LIQUID FORM..BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS AND RAPID COOLING OF THE ENTIRE COLUMN OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW FOR A TIME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF FAR NE MN.

TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AFTER THIS
SYSTEM..BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARD
THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THIS EVENING THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH
INITIAL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO LESS THAN 10KTS BY
02Z...CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE...SO THAT 21Z TO 00Z KBRD AND
KINL WILL BE ONCE AGAIN SUSTAINING 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
AND VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN VFR. AFTER 21Z SUNDAY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE GENERATED IN VICINITY OF KINL OR KBRD...BUT
HAVE LEFT THESE OUT FOR NOW AS HIGHER POTENTIAL IS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  56  45  56 /   0  10  60  20
INL  28  56  43  57 /   0  20  60  20
BRD  34  60  44  59 /   0  10  30  20
HYR  29  59  46  56 /   0  10  70  20
ASX  34  57  44  57 /   0   0  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...LE









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