Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO PUBLIC FORECAST TO ADJUST SOME MINOR
TRENDS. WILL BE WATCHING THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

S/W TROF AXIS WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT ON THE
SW PERIPHERY OF LARGER SCALE LOW NEAR CHURCHILL MB. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM..A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SWRLY LOW
LEVEL JET IS BEING AUGMENTED BY RATHER STRONG 5-7 MB/3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS..LEADING TO A SOMEWHAT ROBUST ENHANCEMENT TO THE SURFACE
WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SUPERPOSITION OF THESE DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE TREES ARE THINNER..AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO PERSIST IN OPEN AREAS..AND WHERE
ROADS PASS NEAR LAKE SHORES.

WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT..WITH A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW.
GENERALLY HALF INCH TO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED..WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT OVERNIGHT..BUT LOSS OF PRESSURE FALLS AND BUILDING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VEERS
TO NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TUE MORNING..AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND USHERS IN YET ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY..ALONG
WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
EVENTUALLY GET ALMOST AS STRONG AS TODAY TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT LIVED SUPERPOSITION OF STRONG GRADIENT AND
3-5 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES..BUT THIS LOOKS TO RELAX A BIT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. BIG TIME
PUSH ON SFC-925 COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

A QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MAINLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE AND
AND LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUDS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE BACKING FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE TWENTIES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
HAS PROMPTED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CONDITION TO LAST UNTIL FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY 05Z-07Z FOR KINL AND 08Z-10Z FOR KHYR. SUSPECT
WE MAY NEED IT AGAIN 12Z-18Z TUESDAY...BUT WILL EVALUATE THIS
AGAIN FOR 06Z TERMINALS. BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO TERMINALS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD...THOUGH TIMING AT THIS TIME IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND HAVE LEFT AS TEMPO GROUPS. AFTER FRONT
PASSAGE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBLITIES WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER 09Z. AFTER 12Z EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENT SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  19 -11   7 /  70  30   0   0
INL  12  13 -21   2 /  80  30   0   0
BRD  17  22  -8  10 /  40  20   0   0
HYR  10  23 -10   9 /  60  40  10   0
ASX  11  22  -6   7 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
AVIATION...LE








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