Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 081416 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TODAY WITH THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MID LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PRESENCE.
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE TO MOVE
WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AT LEAST 3 SHORTWAVES
EVIDENT ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/OCCUR OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA DESPITE LOSS OF EARLIER
INSTABILITY. A WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS/WIND SHIFT IS INDICATED IN
THE 925 FLOW FROM ERN LAKE COUNTY IN THE ARROWHEAD CURVING THROUGH
THE APOSTLES. THIS IS RELATED TO A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY
REPRESENTED IN THE LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. HEAVY PRECIP...RADAR
ESTIMATES AND GROUND REPORT OVER 2 INCHES IN IRON COUNTY...HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. CALLS TO LOCAL LAW OFFICIALS IN THE AREA AND
CHECK ON A FEW RIVERS INDICATES THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER. HAVE
LET FLS EXPIRE AT 3AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT  301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TODAY...BACK DOOR FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO THE TWIN PORTS EARLY IN THE
MORNING AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY. DISTURBING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MDLS
WITH REGARD TO TIME/HEIGHT XSEC OF MOISTURE WITH EC SUGGESTING
WHATEVER LOW CLOUD IS EVIDENT IN MORNING WILL LIFT WITH DAYTIME
WARMING. NAM12/RAP SUGGEST A LOW OVERCAST MAY DWELL INTO AFTERNOON
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL GO PESSIMISTIC IN MORNING AND
IMPROVING TREND IN AFTN. PESKY UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST POPS A BIT CHALLENGING TODAY SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY
BE NECESSARY. WITH A LACK OF A LOW LVL FOCUS FOR BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE THE POPS ARE BASED ON A GUESSTIMATE OF THE AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY. USING RUC13 THIS APPEARS TO LINE UP FROM THE
IRON RANGE TO NW WISC DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL WARMING.
HI RES SIM REFL PRODUCTS SHOW NATURE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
LARGE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ECHOES LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF CWA. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN 925 TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER IN MANY AREAS.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MID LVL TROF OVER ONTARIO AND THE GT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. LOW LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE REPLACED
BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INSERTED VERY LOW POPS OVER SERN PART OF CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH AXIS OF FCST INSTABILITY....ALBEIT MEAGER...IN THE
VICINITY. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT DAY WITH NEAR TYPICAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT  301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW THEIR NORMAL VALUES.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES BUT THESE
POPS WILL BE LOW.    A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH HIS FEATURE.  BOTH MODELS NOW AGREE THAT
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS HAS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE.  WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL REFINE AS THE WEEKEND GETS
CLOSER.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRD WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE DOMINANT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES BY LATE MORNING. BUT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SOLAR
HEATING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNSET AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  50  72  52 /  50  20   0   0
INL  66  48  72  50 /  60  20   0   0
BRD  75  52  76  55 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  70  49  74  49 /  60  30  10   0
ASX  63  48  70  49 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART






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