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000
FXUS63 KDLH 061616
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1016 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE FOCUS IS THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. I EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE IMPROVING TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT
ISSUED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND.

PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE WILL SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

I LOWERED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS SINCE IT APPEARS THE RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A WIDESPREAD LAYER OF
CLOUDS IN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA SHOULD CREEP CLOSER TO THE
MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME CLOUDS MIGHT SPILL
OVER INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

I WILL REVISE THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN MORE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST....COLD WILL BE WEATHER WORD
FOR AWHILE. CURRENT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR AT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE DOWNWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT BASED ON FCST WIND CHILLS...BUT RATHER THAN
MUDDY THE ADVISORY WATERS WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. COLDER AIR STILL ADVECTING IN...TEMPS WILL START OUT
COLDER...AND EXPECT EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS. WINDS WON`T BE NEARLY
AS STRONG TODAY...BUT STILL HAVE 8H WINDS UP TO 25 KTS SO SOME
BREEZE IS LIKELY...KEEPING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FOR THE
DAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING PERSISTENT AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
HUGGING THE SOUTH SORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
BRULE RIVER TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
PERSIST BUT SMALL FETCH AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP IT VERY LIGHT
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A SFC TROF IS HUNG UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES
NORTHERN MN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
HOWEVER...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LOW AND HAVE POPS
TO MATCH. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE WIND WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO HIGH POPS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVER THE FA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTS PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST. EVEN THOUGH A SFC REFLECTION DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THIS WARRANTS POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ANOTHER SHARPER LONG WAVE TROF FOLLOWS QUICKLY BEHIND
ON TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE FA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE SOME POPS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS ANOTHER SFC TROF SETS UP AGAIN. A CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE FA TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SPEED SO
HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SAME SFC TROF DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3 -13   1 -10 /  10  10   0  10
INL   2 -16  -1 -17 /  10  10  10  10
BRD   3 -16   1 -11 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   7 -12   4  -9 /  10  10   0  10
ASX   9  -5   7  -4 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC