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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ENDING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AND RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK TROUGH. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND HAVE
WRITTEN THE TERMINAL FORECAST SO...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...ALSO DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10KTS BY 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE