Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART





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