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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200104
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
804 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK