541
FXUS63 KDLH 072330
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening and tonight. A
  few strong storms possible in the Brainerd Lakes area.

- Warming slightly above normal for Wednesday and Thursday
  before cooling to near normal to end the week before warming
  again through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms return late week and continue
  for the weekend with chances for severe storms as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A shortwave trough was located across North Dakota early this
afternoon along with a weak surface low to the south of the
upper trough. These features have led to a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms stretching from the International Falls
area southwestward into central/west-central Minnesota. No
strong or severe storms are expected with this activity. This
line will continue to push east over the remainder of this
afternoon and evening before moving out of the region early
Tuesday morning. Additional development behind this area of
showers and storms will be possible across northwestern
Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. CAMs show upscale
growth into a cluster or complex of storms early this evening
and then moving southeast into the Brainerd Lakes area through
the remainder of the evening. Storms are expected to be
weakening by the time they arrive, but may still be strong with
gusts to 50 mph possible and maybe hail to the size of nickels.
CAPE will only be around 200-500 J/kg per forecast soundings
with marginal lapse rates and weak shear.

A few wraparound showers/storms will then linger for Tuesday on
the backside of the departing system with highs in the 70s.
High pressure will move through on Wednesday bringing mostly
sunny skies and highs in the 70s and lower 80s. As the high
moves to the east Wednesday night, southerly return flow will
set up across the Upper Midwest and bring in warmer and more
humid air. This will lead to widespread highs in the 80s on
Thursday with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. A weak
shortwave will crest the upper ridge over the Plains Thursday
and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Northland
starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night.
Models now develop an upper low ahead of a stronger
trough/developing upper low that will bring more chances for
showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. The presence of this
leading upper low for Friday does throw a wrench in the severe
storm potential for Friday. It could lead to rounds of rainfall
through the day that would limit the strength of storms, or if
dry conditions hold through the day it could help lead to
stronger storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The
12z suite of models seems to favor to the former and have
lowered the available ingredients to fuel severe storms. What
hasn`t changed is PWATs approaching 2" in the region, so a heavy
rainfall threat still remains. Temperatures will trend cooler
Friday with the clouds and rainfall with 70s and lower 80s and
then further into the 70s for Saturday. Warmer air then returns
for Sunday and into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Multiple chances for rain and some thunder this evening and
overnight. Radar shows a line of showers moving across northern MN
and another segment across the Brainerd Lakes Region into NW WI.
There have been a few embedded lightning strikes within the northern
sector but no severe weather. Further west stronger supercells are
moving along the border of ND and MN. The upper level trough
supporting this activity will swing through the Northland overnight
and may lead to some additional development. As rain clears out
overnight the saturated ground may lead to some morning fog.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 knots will persist for much of
the upcoming week. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon
before weakening at night. There will be chances for showers and
a few isolated thunderstorms tonight, but storms are not
expected to be strong or severe. More storm chances return
Thursday and linger into the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH