Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280520 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  49  40  54 /  70  50  20  10
INL  43  54  37  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  51  58  44  63 /  40  20  10  20
HYR  48  56  42  63 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  47  51  41  58 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING





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