Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 211443
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
943 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TODAY...MAINLY TO
INCREASE FURTHER. THE RAP AND SATELLITE SUGGEST WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AT 3 AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
RAIN WAS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
AND IT WAS DRY IN AND AROUND BRAINERD. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE AREA WAS SEEING RAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AND THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS
WELL. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WELL...BUT MAY BE A BIT
STUBBORN IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A WESTERLY WIND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE UNITED SATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. EXPECT
NNW TO NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  45  70  49 /  20   0   0   0
INL  60  41  71  44 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  62  44  70  48 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  61  41  68  45 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  58  43  67  46 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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