Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300458
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  60  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







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