Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A cooler Canadian airmass will gradually advect across the upper
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes today and tomorrow leading to
cooler conditions. In addition, mid-level moisture associated with
the cooler air will lead to cloudy skies and a chance for showers
(or more like flurries/sprinkles) across the international border

On the synoptic scale an upper low over northwest Ontario is
gradually weakening, soon to be absorbed by a deep longwave trough
that will develop across the Mississippi river valley late tonight
into Thursday. As this happens, cooler air will advect across
northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into Thursday.
Not an incredibly cold airmass (850mb temps around -5C) but
seasonably cool. With this cooler air will also come a stream of
fairly deep moisture bringing cloud cover and possibly some light
precip given the bit of instability introduced by the cooler air
aloft. The 12z sounding upstream at CYQD (The Pas) in northern
Manitoba shows a surprisingly saturated profile through about 300mb,
and combined with the already stubborn stratus that held on today
across the Northland expect showers will be possible. A few sites
across northwest Ontario have reported light rain or snow today, so
went a bit aggressive on the precip chances up north (north of the
Iron Range), with a buffer of sprinkles/flurries. There`s even a
possibility for some lake enhanced showers along the south shore -
mainly across the Bayfield Peninsula.

Tonight...look for some clearing skies as an area of drier air moves
in across northern Minnesota. Lows in the low 30s, with a few
locations possibly dropping into the upper 20s. Calm wind.

Thursday...increasing clouds with a chance for rain/snow showers
and/or sprinkles/flurries, mainly along and north of Iron Range.
Highs cool in the low to mid 40s, which is only about 5 degrees
below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The upper level trough over the western Great Lakes will move off
to the southeast Thursday night, as upper level ridging moves into
the region on Friday. A weak shortwave will ride along the upper
level ridge Friday and Friday night bringing a chance of showers
to northern areas by Friday night. Warmer air will gradually
return for the weekend, although the models do start to show some
differences as early as Saturday. The big story is the potential
development of a major upper level system from the early to middle
part of next week. The ECMWF is most dramatic with widespread
precipitation expected to move into the region from Monday night
into Wednesday. The GFS keeps most of the precipitation south of
the CWA during that time. Will also maintain a chance of thunder
across southern portions of the Northland from early to midweek
next week. High temperatures will rise from the 40s on Friday, to
the 50s over the weekend and into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A trough axis will gradually swing through the forecast area
through the TAF period per the latest guidance. The trough will
dig and deepen from Saskatchewan tonight into eastern portions of
northwest WI by the end of the TAF cycle. This will generally
bring widespread MVFR ceilings between 1500-3000 ft. Expect
periods of VFR with ceilings around 3500-4000 ft. May see some
rain or snow showers impact INL tomorrow. Uncertain at this point
in time how widespread the activity will be, so left as VCSH at
this point. Winds will remain below 10 kts through the forecast.


DLH  30  44  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
INL  32  41  29  47 /  20  30   0  10
BRD  31  45  30  51 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  31  46  30  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  35  46  32  47 /   0  10   0   0




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