Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280521 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WE WILL BE MAKING SOME SHORT TERM CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AN AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED FROM
NEAR KCDD/KINL SOUTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND
WE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR SHORT IS RAIN TONIGHT AND PTYPE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE MN
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NW WI. THERE ARE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN THIS EVENING ACROSS NW WI AND THE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO END BY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST.

TWO AREA OF LOW PRESSURES HAS COMBINED INTO A LARGE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE AREA OF SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BEING DRAGGED ROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT SPREADING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE WEST. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN TOMORROW ALONG WITH COLDER AIR
WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE AND THE INLAND AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ILL BE
ABOUT AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD CORE LOW WILL BE ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME SO
RAIN AND/OR SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATE WED AND SLIDE TO THE EAST QUICKLY WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. A FAVORABLE NRLY
FLOW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SNOW
AMTS ARE EXPECTED. THE DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SW AND USHERS
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF RATHER MILD WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FELT THUR INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
DURING CLEAR NIGHTS INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LOW LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND WE
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...BUT AS THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN...MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR ALL SNOW OCCUR OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  42  35  46 /  40  10  10  20
INL  32  40  30  41 /  40  10  10  20
BRD  33  44  32  50 /  20   0  10  10
HYR  37  43  33  48 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  37  44  34  48 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MELDE/GROCHOCINSKI






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