Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

HAVE SENT AN UPDATE FOR THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
40-50MPH...SO WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS CAREFULLY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...BUT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALLOWING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO COME TO SURFACE.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN NW WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO...PRECIP CHANCE NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA TO JUST
SOUTH OF IRONWOOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED IN THAT AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE AT 500-1000 AND LI 0 TO -3. THE
UPLIFT ALONG THE SLOW SOUTH MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN NW WI THROUGH SUNSET. THE STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL WITH THEM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL END THE PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH NE MN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 SO WILL PUT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF DLH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL CAUSE MORE INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SO KEPT
THE POPS FOR PRECIP IN THE GRIDS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM WILL BE ON LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH DOUBLE
BARREL CLOSED LOW THAT SLOWLY SWINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CAA BRINGS RAPIDLY FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH H85 VALUES ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
0 C SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
SHOULD NOT BE IMPRESSIVELY COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR
MASS...RAIN...AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
TO THE LOW 60S F. THESE VALUES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE RECORD
FOR COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 14TH AT KINL WHERE THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 61 F SET IN 1908.

THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR PERIOD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE MONDAY...SO
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS PROFILES ARE DEEPLY SATURATED AND PWATS
REMAIN IN THE 0.75 TO 1.0" RANGE.

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD CORE TROUGH MAKES A GRADUAL
EXIT TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LVL
RIDGING THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE FAR
RANGES OF THE LONG TERM MODELS OF SHORT WAVE WITH MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS THIS LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...PROVIDING A WARM RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ARE ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT. THESE ARE STILL AFFECTING KDLH AND KBRD...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH KHYR HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY
VFR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z...BUT ONLY AFFECTING KINL AND KHIB
THROUGH 06Z. THESE MVFR CIGS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -SHRA.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  61  48  68 /  40  60  30  10
INL  47  60  47  68 /  50  50  10  10
BRD  51  62  49  69 /  30  50  10  10
HYR  51  58  47  67 /  20  70  40  10
ASX  49  59  46  65 /  40  70  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE






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