Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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129
FXUS63 KDLH 251530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Made some small adjustments on the chances for precipitation today
and added fog to the forecast late tonight across inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

An upper level low/trough will lift east-northeast from southern
Manitoba and the Northern Plains to northern Lake Superior and
Ontario today. It will usher in cool and breezy west-northwest
flow, which will help develop widespread broken/overcast cumulus
this afternoon. Scattered showers are forecast across northern
Minnesota, and isolated thunder is possible across the
international border. Expects gusts to around 20 mph, and highs
ranging from the lower 60s across northern central Minnesota to
the lower 70s across northwest Wisconsin.

High pressure will move into the Northland, providing and clearer
and cooler night. Lows will dip to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Southwest flow will develop Friday, bringing warmer air back into
the region. Scattered to broken cumulus is expected Wednesday.
Temperatures will rebound to the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Friday night through Saturday night is our next decent chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The surface ridge keeping our weather
quiet on Friday will shift far enough east for southwest return
flow to set up in the evening, with warm air advection going on
aloft. For now, it looks like the main focus of elevated warm air
advection and frontogenesis will be across the southern portions
of the forecast area, with some weaker forcing to produce smaller
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the remainder
of the forecast area. This will produce a cool and cloudy day on
Saturday, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday looks
quiet for now, though there is some potential for lingering
showers which look somewhat limited for now and have left those
pops out of the forecast for now.

Model differences start to become significant by Monday, as a
weak cold front slowly slides through the area and the placement
of the associated precipitation chances is somewhat variable. It
could get pretty warm that day as a wedge of 850mb temperatures
approaching 20C gets up into the area. Have put in some low 80s
for highs, but this may need to be raised, depending on the pops.
Once the cold front drops into the area it becomes stalled in our
vicinity for Tuesday and Wednesday, where depends on the model of
choice. This will keep precipitation chances going even into
Thursday as this somewhat active pattern remains over the area.
Temperatures to remain seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s most days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR conditions as of issuance time will be overspread by stratus
moving into the terminals from the west. KINL, KHIB and KBRD to be
affected by MVFR ceilings by 15z which should continue for at
least a few hours before ceilings lift to above 3kft in the 16z-
20z time range depending on the location. Showers will be possible
at several locations due to recent rainfall and cooler
temperatures, with visibilities overnight as low as LIFR at times.
Stratus may also form, with MVFR ceilings where it forms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  50  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
INL  64  47  74  54 /  50   0   0  30
BRD  70  49  74  57 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  74  50  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  75  54  72  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141-
     146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



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