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000
FXUS63 KDLH 220538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CEILINGS FROM 3500-4500 FEET COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KINL TO KPBH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE PER
THE LATEST RAP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH AND WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT WILL VEER TO MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  47  35  44 /   0  70  80  80
INL  32  54  37  44 /   0  40  70  80
BRD  38  53  42  52 /  10  70  70  70
HYR  31  55  38  51 /   0  60  80  80
ASX  29  51  37  46 /   0  50  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DTM