Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 100937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
337 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A fairly decent day today with a few snow showers over the
Wisconsin snow belt areas. Clouds will be quite prevalent in a
moist northerly flow pattern.

Attention then turns to the main impactful event of the short term
when the next clipper begins to approach the area this evening. It
appears the majority of the area should see 1-3" of snowfall from
this system - most of which will fall overnight tonight into
Monday morning. Luckily most of the heaviest snowfall will occur
in the midnight to 4 am Monday timeframe; however, light snow
should still be falling as the Monday morning commute commences,
so roads could be a little tricky to navigate. Models seem to be
in fair agreement on both intensity and timing of this system, so
fairly high confidence in this forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Most of the week will be relatively cold because of passing
Canadian Clippers and subsequent cold snaps. These Clippers will
bring periods of light snowfall. More mild weather is possible
late this week.

Monday night and Tuesday look cold because of northerly flow in the
wake of Sunday night and Monday`s passing Clipper. An area of high
pressure will move through the Northland Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will plummet Tuesday night into the single
digits above and below zero because of the light wind speeds and
mostly clear skies. There will be some increasing cloud cover from
the west because of an approaching Clipper, so the cloud cover`s
timing will affect how cold it gets. It could be even colder if the
higher cloud cover holds off most of the night.

The GFS, European, and Canadian indicate one or two weak Canadian
Clippers will dive south the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes
region Tuesday night through Thursday. These Clippers will likely
bring light coatings of snow to the Northland, as well as another
blast of cold northerly winds Thursday.

The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest another weak Clipper could
track from Manitoba through or near Ontario and/or the Minnesota
Arrowhead sometime late Friday through Saturday. This Clipper
will bring warmer air into the region, and the northern and
eastern forecast area have the best chance of light snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

An area of low pressure was over northwest Minnesota at the start
of the forecast. Plenty of clouds were affecting the terminals
with a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs. The clouds will persist through
much of the forecast with MVFR cigs. There will be a few hours
where VFR cigs are possible as some drier air pushes into the
region. However, more clouds upstream will affect the area as the
next clipper arrives toward the end of the forecast.


DLH  22  14  25   3 /   0  80  40   0
INL  17  11  19  -3 /  10  80  20   0
BRD  27  21  30   8 /  10  90  40   0
HYR  25  14  28   4 /   0  80  60   0
ASX  24  14  28   8 /  20  80  60  20




LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.