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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
733 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
REFRESHED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS WITH THE AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES
/PRICE AND IRON COUNTY/ TO THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED UP TIMING FOR ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A FEW RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER
FAR NORTHWEST KOOCHICHING COUNTY. THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE
IRON RANGE AND MN ARROWHEAD ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDER MOVING INTO THE KINL THEN KHIB AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KDLH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
KDLH VCNY OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN MORNING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM..THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON ADDITIONAL
TSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD..AND ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN PINE CITY AND
HAYWARD/SPOONER/PARK FALLS AS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY
DISORGANIZING MCS BRUSHES BY NW WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SVR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD..BUT
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED TSTORMS TO SUSTAIN IN THIS AREA APPEARS LOW.
MAIN ISSUES WITH STORMS MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN APPEAR TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AROUND 7-8 PM. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WE COULD GET A FEW NICKEL/QUARTER HAIL REPORTS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF 50 DBZ CORES UP TO AROUND 28 KFT.

AS S/W IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA..ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THE GREATEST CHANCES SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN..BUT STRONGER 850-700 FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT
WITH DEEP MIXING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO A FEW WIND/HAIL
REPORTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO ANYTHING OTHER THAN POPS/SKY COVER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS TEMPS/RH/WINDS LOOK GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL KEEP A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE FLAT MID-WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TOP OF IT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN. THE POPS WILL BE
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 70S DURING THE WEEK WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  75  53  68 /  10  20  50  40
INL  51  71  49  71 /  20  50  40  20
BRD  56  78  57  72 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  54  78  55  72 /  10  10  40  40
ASX  53  76  52  67 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

GRANING