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000
FXUS63 KDLH 041457 AAD
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
857 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

TEMPS CRATERED AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SKIES CLEARED WITH THE
DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW..REACHING TO NEAR -20F ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR NE MINNESOTA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MORNING LOWS HAVE BEEN
ACHIEVED BETWEEN 7-8 AM. NEXT VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE N
DAKOTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE I94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING..AND MAY BRUSH THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS/PINE CITY AREAS WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 AND 8 PM.
HOWEVER..NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE..GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/FULL SUN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID WARM UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WE HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MOST OF THE VARIOUS GRID ELEMENTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS..BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS..THE GOING FORECAST HAD THINGS
HANDLED QUITE WELL AND LITTLE CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED.
ALL UPDATED GRIDS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY WI AND SHOULD END
THERE BY 730 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO SPEED PROGRESSION OF CLEARING SOUTHWARD AS PER
LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND FCST NAM12 H85/70H MOISTURE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE A VERY WEAK INVERTED
SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SW MN INTO SW ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NWRN KOOCH CO.
SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

TODAY...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CTRL ONTARIO SUPPRESSING
FRNTL BDRY SOUTH OF REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE
INTO THE NERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER
FROM THE SERN WISC ZONES WNW TOWARDS THE LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSMOS...CARRYING
OVER YESTERDAYS COLD BIAS.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...QUIET PATTERN OVERALL AS SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
INTENSIFIES AND SHIFTS SOUTH. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ANTICYCLONIC
BDRY LYR FLOW TONIGHT BEFORE THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN CHANGES WEDNESDAY. MID LVL CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR
OUT OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS SRN
MANITOBA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT AN INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MN PART OF THE CWA. FCST
SNDGS AND MDL TIME/HEIGHT XSECTS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED EVENING. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER OVER WRN CWA IN WAA
REGIME WHILE ARROWHEAD TO TWIN PORTS IS INFLUENCED BY PRONOUNCED
WEDGE IN LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS PRODUCED BY LARGE SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM  CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY TRY TO PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH NE MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
18Z THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT IN THE WAA ZONE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
GENERATE MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FA THURSDAY. WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR POPS AS MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY IN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING/MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE FA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL END THE SNOW FROM W TO E FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS IN CHARGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURN AND HAVE USED A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NW WI SOON. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AFTER THE SNOW DEPARTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  -3  16   2 /  10   0  10  20
INL  15 -10  19   6 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  18  -1  22  10 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  20  -4  22   2 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  18  -4  18   3 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF