057
FXUS63 KDLH 280850
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
350 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunities for isolated to scattered strong to
  severe thunderstorms through Sunday evening.

- Heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday morning in inland north
  central Wisconsin may fall over an area which previously saw very
  heavy rainfall from earlier this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

An area of general thunderstorms, with a few strong storms being
observed to produce small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph, move
through northwest Minnesota and enter north-central Minnesota
early this morning. Mesoscale analysis from high-res model
guidance and surface observations shows a less suitable
environment to sustain these strong thunderstorms early this
morning so the primary hazards are most likely to be numerous
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, heavy rainfall and winds
gusting up to 40 mph in the Brainerd Lakes region through 7-8 AM
this morning. Other parts of northern Minnesota could still see
light to locally moderate rainfall. This early morning rainfall
is expected to help mix out some of the locally dense fog which
has formed in central St. Louis County. A delayed entry into
northwest Wisconsin this morning is likely to keep those pockets
of dense fog lingering a bit longer into the sunrise hours.

A boundary sets up just south of the Northland today which will
be the main focus for later-day severe weather chances of the
region again this late afternoon and through the evening hours.
Instability increases through the daytime as speed shear aloft
increases. Disorganized directional shear is evident though on
model forecast soundings though this afternoon as late afternoon
convective initiation is expected. The elevated nature of any
storms that do form though keep the primary threats as a large
(scraping on very large hail into early evening) into early
evening before more of a combined damaging wind and large hail
threat emerges after 1600-1800 CT with storms finally having the
potential to become surface based. Expect the primary area of
concern to remain south of WI Hwy 77 in northwest Wisconsin and
east of the Brainerd Lakes region with a mean easterly storm
motion likely. Convective allowing high-res models keep hints at
another storm complex forming in the later evening hours lasting
into the overnight hours. A very moist airmass advected into
northern Wisconsin has the potential to create another round of
heavy rainfall (1-3 inches) over areas that just a few days ago
saw 2-4 inches. This flooding threat will continue to be
assessed today for potential need of any headline needs should
confidence increase on that forecast rainfall axis overlapping
the previous mid-week heavy rainfall observations.

Another vorticity lobe maxima will move through the region
Sunday daytime as a mean broad mid-level trough pushes eastward
through the northern U.S. and southern Canadian Plains. Expect
another round of thunderstorms Sunday, but specifically focused
on northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon and evening hours.

After a seasonable summer weekend, but with high dewpoints
leading to notable humidities today and Sunday, a more westerly
flow regime following the broad trough enters the region Monday
to decrease dewpoints and leave seasonable temperatures. Expect
continued scattered diurnal thunderstorm chances mid to late
next week. The placement of surface high pressure to stacked
mid-level central US ridge axis will be pronounced ahead of the
holiday weekend forecast for late next week. Right now the
pattern slightly favors a warm nose entering northern Minnesota,
with cooler flow over northern Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Fog creates localized IFR and LIFR visibilities through 13Z
today at area terminals ahead of improving visibilities this
morning. An area of strong to localized severe thunderstorms in
eastern North Dakota will be monitored over the next few hours
to see about any amendments needed to northern Minnesota TAFs as
this system trecks east-southeastward. Right now the mentions of
prevailing showers with periodic thunderstorms seems fair for
the given weakening eastward trends and bit more southeastward
track expected so mainly affecting terminals south of US Hwy 2
in northern Minnesota. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is likely to initiate from 19-22Z today, but just
how widespread the severe thunderstorm chances are is yet to be
fully seen given this ongoing complex of storms early Saturday
morning. Future TAF issuances will very likely see adjustments
to timing of thunderstorms in current PROB30s and TEMPOS for
23Z today to 06Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Light easterly winds around or under 10 knots occur today ahead
of a wind shift to southwesterly tonight that lasts into early
week. A few southwesterly gusts around 20 knots are most likely
Monday afternoon, but only low to medium confidence at this time
on any conditions meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy