Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
856 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS ON WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/GFS20 SOUNDINGS AND
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL WINDS SUGGESTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE TOO LOW. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
TWIN PORTS AREA MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS WITH A WEIGHTING
TOWARDS THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH IS PROVIDING THICKER
CLOUD COVER FOR THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND ALSO PROVIDES SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
LOW FURTHER SOUTH TO CAUSE AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CANADIAN HIGH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND SOME OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND SIXTY IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND WALKER TO THE MID TO UPPER
FIFTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH ONLY FORTIES OCCURRING.

THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER FORTIES
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT BE AROUND SIXTY WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE LONG TERM GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THEN A QUICK MOVING CANADIAN LOW MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ON THE WARM
SIDE...IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CANADIAN LOW SWINGS BY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS MUCH COLDER
AIR COMING IN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...-5C AT 8H WITH THE GFS VS
ABOUT 0C ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL END...GIVING SOME WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER FROM THE EAST TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  29  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  58  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  47  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC


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