Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  40  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...KK






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