Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A cold front boundary will continue to dive to the south through the
evening hours, which is expected to bring chances of rain showers
mainly across the northern half of the forecast area through the
night tonight. Cold air advection north of the boundary will
pour into the region, supporting a rain/snow mix as temperatures
cool. Winds will also veer to more of a northerly direction as the
front passes. There may be a rumble of thunder as well due to
small amounts of elevated instability, but only during the evening
hours. Instability tapers off overnight, and clouds will increase
ahead of the front. RAP/NAM/GFS soundings all indicate a
deepening moisture profile, which will help to increase dendritic
snow growth in the mid-levels. Moreover, the best low- to mid-
level frontogenesis associated with this frontal boundary will
arrive in the late evening into the morning hours Sunday, although
the strongest FGEN will be over northwest Minnesota and into
North Dakota. This should support at least some light snow
accumulations, perhaps up to one inch for most locations, and
maybe higher amounts along the North Shore. However, there is
still some uncertainty with the exact snow amounts because there
is still some decent QPF amounts associated with this boundary. If
temperatures cool a bit more, there would be higher amounts of
snow possible. These snow amounts may need to be adjusted as the
snow begins to fall. Temperatures overnight will range from the
lower 30s north to the mid to upper 30s south.

The baroclinic zone associated with the frontal boundary will
stall just over our southern tier of counties, as indicated by 925
mb level temperatures, so most of the Northland will stay cool
Sunday, except for those over our south, especially those over our
southern tier of counties in northwest Wisconsin. Easterly on-
shore flow over Lake Superior will keep temperatures cool along
the lake in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s lakeside. Highs in the mid to upper 40s expected further
inland. By Sunday afternoon, the band of precipitation that should
develop along this boundary will lift northward as a push of warm
air from the south along 850-700 mb warm air advection moves in.
Overcast skies will continue into Sunday night across nearly all
of the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The extended will be unsettled with a series of shortwaves and low
pressure systems moving through and close to the forecast area.
Also, temperatures will be below normal into next weekend.

The cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight will
stall in central Wisconsin Sunday evening and move back north as
a warm front Sunday night and Monday out ahead of a strong low
pressure system in the central plains. This front will spread a
chance for rain and/or snow showers with the best of snow along
and north of the Iron range. The area of low pressure will move
into SW MN by Monday evening. This will spread another shot of
precipitation across the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning. As mentioned by the previous shift, there is a
possibility of snow along the Iron Range and north where a few
inches may fall.

The deep low pressure area pulls out Tuesday night but another
strong low pressure center moves through central and eastern
Wisconsin Wednesday, spreading another round of rain into mainly
NW WI through Wednesday night. There is a possibility of light
snow Wednesday night as colder air pushes into the region.

There will be a break in the precipitation Thurs. morning through
Saturday morning with only slight chances for rain or snow
showers through the time period. Models are different with the
Saturday night and sunday precipitation with the GFS placing pops
across NW WI and the ECMWF keeps the area dry. Will have only chc
pops in grids for now until models start coming together.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Cold front slowly sagging south across the terminals as of issuance
time, gradually stalling out over northern Wisconsin in the 12z-21z
time range before pushing back north as a war front after 00z. North
of the front a band of precipitation will move through the
terminals, bringing a 6-12 hour period of IFR/MVFR ceilings with
MVFR/VFR visibilities in -RA or a -RASN mixture. Conditions to be
higher at KHYR and KBRD than other locations.  Ceilings should
improve to VFR or better after 15z, but then lower again after


DLH  35  39  31  44 /  80  70  40  50
INL  29  42  29  40 /  80  20  50  80
BRD  39  50  36  56 /  40  40  10  70
HYR  39  51  37  61 /  10  30  20  40
ASX  36  41  32  55 /  70  70  30  30


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for



LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...DAP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.