Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140951
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE WEEKEND ENDS WITH CLOUDS...LIGHT SNOW...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECASTS TREND OF A SLOWER TREND FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING TODAY. STILL EXPECTING JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS...1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OCCURRING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH AN
OPEN LAKE AND SOUTH-SOUTH WEST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ONCE THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED
SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM A SUBTLE PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30...PERHAPS APPROACHING FREEZING AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS...A FASTER SOUTHERN WAVE WITH BETTER ACCESS
TO DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND A SLOWER AND WEAKER NORTHERN
MID-LEVEL WAVE. WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM PRODUCES MORE SNOW TO OUR
SOUTH...THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE TO BRING MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TODAY. AT LOWER LEVELS WARMER AIR IS STREAMING IN WITH THE
850MB TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE TODAY AS THIS BASICALLY
ELEVATED WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH MID/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THIS WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE THE
BEST SHOT AT HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CWA. SUBTLE CLIPPER SLIDES IN MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS AND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS TO DIVE OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS NOT VERY STRONG AND
WITH ONLY A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO BE...AND
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE.  BEHIND THE
WAVE EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SNOW BELT AREAS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES TO
EVEN THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN SOME TIME. WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM 10 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MODELS ARE GIVING
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AND HAVE BEEN
INCREASING POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...WARMER
AND MORE PHASED THAN THE GFS AS OF THE 00Z RUNS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA BY THIS STORM...AS IT
MAY BRING A LONG PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS RELATIVELY
SIMPLE AS I ANTICIPATE MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THIS SYSTEM IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATE ON SUNDAY THE FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF WISCONSIN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS TO THE MVFR RANGE.
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO ALL TERMINALS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES
WHICH WILL BRING VISBY REDUCTION. THINK THAT MOST VISBY REDUCTION
WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT GFSLAMP HAS HINTED AT IFR
VISBY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FELT MOST CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IFR VISBY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z AT KBRD AND KINL AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE
STRONGEST FORCING FROM THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  30  17 /  70  80  10  20
INL  16  13  28  11 /  80  80  20  10
BRD  19  14  31  16 /  80  70  10  30
HYR  16  12  29  17 /  50  60  20  20
ASX  19  13  31  19 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL


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