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000
FXUS63 KDLH 111232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

AT 345AM/0845Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE
LOW...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST...WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAD BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY FROM MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD
FROM THE QUEBEC LOW TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THERE
WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR...AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MUCH OF ONTARIO...MANITOBA...AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHLAND HAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE WNW TO
NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TODAY...THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST TO
MISSOURI. ITS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN
BEGIN TO SCATTER AND SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO DITCH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS....THE LOW CLOUDS IN
CANADA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT
MOVES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO I INCREASED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SINCE THOSE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME NNE TO ENE. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE OPEN
WATER NOW DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...THE COLD FLOW OVER THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS
AREA...AND FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT...BUT THE NAM12 AND SREF ARE DOING MUCH BETTER HANDLING
THIS. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT A HALF TO A FULL INCH. MORE
IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE THREAT
WHEN THIS TIMEFRAME COMES INTO VIEW FOR MORE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. THE BEST PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO
BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM. THIS IS WHEN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE BEST...AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
DECREASING WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST NOW HAS A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TO THE MID TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LIGHTEN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGHS A
BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND
MORE MOIST AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE ONLY THE GFS WAS THIS QUICK AT BRINGING IN
THE PCPN...I DECIDED TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

HAVE INCREASED TO BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THURS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL OMEGA TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...TRIGGERING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE
WARM SECTOR PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S.

LATEST MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING...BUT
ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
SUGGEST THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/MN
ARROWHEAD ZONES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON
IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST MONDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ORGANIZED SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MVFR CEILINGS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CIGS...AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN
AREAS...MAINLY KINL AND HIB LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33   4  18  10 /  10  20  20  50
INL  26  -7  20  15 /  10  10   0  40
BRD  35   7  23  15 /  10  10  10  40
HYR  37   5  19   8 /  10  30  10  40
ASX  36   4  16   4 /  10  50  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING