Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 132019
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
319 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant conditions in store to close out the week.

- Weak Clipper moves through late Friday and into Saturday
  bringing light precipitation.

- Much cooler conditions in store Sunday onwards with dry
  conditions persisting.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Short Term (Through Friday PM):

An area of frontogenesis and upward forcing is causing virga
and sprinkles moving east through northwestern Minnesota and
could bring some sprinkles to the Brainerd Lakes area. Due to
the dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere, most of the
precipitation is not expected to hit the ground.

Our string of nice days across the Northland will continue in
earnest heading into the weekend. At the synoptic level, there
exists a ridge situated across the Great Lakes Region with a
trough sitting across the Intermountain West. The ridge has been
the reason why we’ve had such warm weather as all the active
weather either went to our south or north. This pattern will
stick with us for the coming days meaning that at the surface,
Spring will be in full form. Highs will top off in the 40-50s
with light winds out of the south on Thursday and Friday. RH
values will be in the 40-50% range reducing the fire risk
somewhat compared to days prior this week.

Extended Range (Saturday Onwards):

Our string of nice days comes to an end this weekend as a
substantial pattern takes place. The ridge that has been giving
us dry and warm conditions will flip to a trough located across
the eastern half of the Great Lakes. The result of this is a
cooler but still dry pattern with the mean flow coming out of
the Canadian Prairies. To kick-start this pattern flip, a
shortwave dropping out of Manitoba late on Friday will bring
with it some precipitation (45-55%) with higher chances near the
Canadian Border. Temperatures will likely still be well above
freezing at the onset of the precipitation leading to mainly
rain falling. However as temperatures fall overnight in tandem
with the cold front, some mixed precipitation may occur in the
early hours of Saturday. Minimal accumulation is expected with
at most 1” possible right along the Canadian Border.

Following this, highs will drop into the 30-40s on Saturday with
winds out of the NW making it feel chillier. Some lingering
rain/snow showers might persist across the South Shore of Lake
Superior but any accumulation will remain minimal. Late on
Saturday an Arctic Front will drop out of Canada bringing our
coldest weather in over 2 weeks. Highs on Sunday and Monday will
be 5-10F below normal with temperatures in the 25-35F range on
both days. Heading into later next week, a slight warming trend
back towards the climatological normals for this time of year is
in store with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals except INL. An IFR
stratus deck is lingering longer than models are projecting.
Latest runs still insist on clearing it in the next couple
hours. Opted to extend the low stratus until 22Z, but may need
to amend past that if the linger. Stratus only seems to be
eating away at edges in full sun, which is being inhibited by
higher cirrus. MVFR ceilings could return to northeastern
Minnesota tomorrow as cold air is advected from Canada.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Winds will increase out of the northeast over western Lake
Superior as a low pressure passes through the southern Midwest.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the South Shore, Twin
Ports, and up to Silver Bay where these conditions will occur. Winds
up to 25 kts and waves up to 5 ft are possible before the low
moves away and wind shift to the north and decrease briefly for
Friday morning. It will be immediately followed by another low
pressure system moving southeast through Ontario. Winds are
currently expected to be the strongest Saturday afternoon, and
there could be some gales throughout the afternoon. Conditions
will continue to be hazardous to small craft though Sunday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML


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