Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The main concern for the short term involves the critical fire
weather conditions over portions of central and north-central
Minnesota this afternoon into this evening.

Early this morning a deep area of low pressure was centered over
east-central Saskatchewan with a cool front extending south and
west across northwest North Dakota and eastern Montana. A pre-
frontal trough led the cool front and was found over central North
Dakota. South to southwesterly winds were found across the region
and skies were mainly clear over the Northland. An area of cirrus
ahead of the trough will spread eastward into north- central and
central Minnesota this morning. Mainly sunny skies are expected
after the initial cirrus moves through. GOES-16 imagery suggests
the leading cirrus are thin with thicker clouds farther west.
Temperatures will be warm today ahead of the front with readings
topping out in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees from Brainerd
northeast into the Arrowhead and over all of northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler over north- central Minnesota
where the front will arrive first. The tightening pressure
gradient over the region will result in strong westerly winds by
early this afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected
with wind gusts to 30 mph possible. The dry airmass in place will
be reinforced with drier air from the west. Forecast soundings
suggest boundary layer mixing to nearly 800 mb is possible near
International Falls, with the GFS mixing even deeper. The stronger
winds aloft should efficiently move moisture downwind resulting
in very dry conditions over much of the Northland. The combination
of dry fuels, strong westerly winds, and minimum humidity values
between 20 and 30 percent will result in critical fire weather
conditions for portions of north- central Minnesota, and near-
critical conditions farther south and east. Winds will gradually
subside this evening as the boundary layer decouples. Thursday
will be quite dry once again, but wind speeds will be lower. Highs
will be in the middle 60s to near 70 degrees for most of the
Northland. Temperatures will be near 60 degrees to the middle 60s
in the Arrowhead.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Continued dry and warm under high pressure through Friday night.

A developing front fueled by an upper level trough slides through
the region on Sunday morning, but it will have difficulty fighting
through the strong ridge that has been anchored over the region.
Thus, precipitation may be greatly diminished compared to a more
progressive pattern.

The next system arrives Monday as a strong jet pokes into the
region developing a surface low over western Ontario. Luckily the
system is still in the early stages of development, so it will
act to cool the region back to seasonal temperatures and little if
any precip will develop though clouds should be prevalent.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions through the TAF period. The main concerns for this
set of TAFs is gusty westerly flow this afternoon, with low-level
wind shear possible again tonight due to a strong westerly low
level jet expected to develop behind a cold front that is
currently passing through north-central Minnesota. Model guidance
is indicating 850 mb level winds around 45 to 50 kts, which is
strong enough for LLWS concerns despite the winds near the surface
staying in the 5 to 10 kt range.


DLH  67  36  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  63  32  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  67  36  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  37  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  73  39  67  47 /   0   0   0   0


MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-018.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-141-146-

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-142>145-



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