Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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932
FXUS63 KDLH 192122
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Northland will continue to be affected by snow and areas of
freezing rain through Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure
over eastern Iowa will continue lifting towards southern Michigan
this afternoon and evening. A mid-level frontogenetical band
across northwest Wisconsin and the forcing from the area of low
pressure will continue to produce snow across east-central MN and
northwest WI through at least this evening. Areas of freezing rain
are forecast in northwest Wisconsin through tonight and early
Tuesday because of the lack of cold enough air in the saturated
layer aloft to ensure sufficient ice crystal seeding for snow.
Price County, and areas to the south and east, will be the most
affected by the freezing rain with up to a couple tenths of an
inch of icing. Some of the freezing rain may fall as sleet because
of refreezing potential because of much colder air near the
surface. Another wave of snow will spread into the Northland later
tonight from the southwest due to large-scale forcing from an
approaching from mid/upper trough. This next wave will primarily
bring more snow to central and northern MN, but areas of northwest
WI will get some additional light snow, too. All together, it will
be a snowy or icy stretch of weather for the Northland through
early Tuesday. The snow and freezing rain will diminish from the
south Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by the
afternoon, but there could be lingering very light snow across far
northern MN. Colder air will begin to work its way into the
Northland from the northwest Tuesday in the wake of the departing
snow.

Tonight`s lows will range from the low teens in northwest
WI to near 0 degrees across the Canadian border region.
Tomorrow`s highs will be in the middle and lower 20s in northwest
WI and the teens across central and northeast MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The main concerns for the long term include overnight low
temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with the potential
for light snow Thursday night and Friday.

By Tuesday evening the mid-level vort max and associated inverted
surface trough will be located over northern Minnesota, northwest
Ontario, and western Upper Michigan. These features will continue
to move toward the northeast overnight with rising heights and
surface high pressure to moving into the region. Skies will
gradually clear from the southwest overnight with wind speeds
diminishing. Think we`ll have efficient radiational cooling and
have lowered min temps below the consensus blends toward the
cooler bias-corrected versions of the SREF and HiResARW. Expect
overnight lows from the low single digits above zero along the
south shore and portions of north-central Wisconsin, to around
15 below zero over portions of central and northeast Minnesota.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with below average
temperatures in the teens to low 20s above zero. Wednesday night
looks cold once again with efficient radiational cooling. Warm air
advection aloft may limit the cooling so opted to carry temps
near zero along the south shore to around -11 for areas in the
Iron Range. Interior portions of northwest Wisconsin will likely
dip to -5 to -10, as well.

As the surface ridge glides farther east Thursday, temperatures
will trend warmer and approach normal readings for most locations.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 20s. A few low 30s
aren`t out of the question, either. The southerly to southeasterly
winds will also increase moisture across the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough for Thursday night and Friday. As the
trough moves through the Northland, look for light snow to
develop and spread northeast across the area during the evening.
The best forcing for ascent will be short-lived with snow tapering
off over central Minnesota early Friday morning and ending during
the afternoon for northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. A
few inches of accumulation are possible from this fast-moving
system.

Models diverge in their handling of the forecast details after
Friday. Temperatures will continue their warming trend for the
weekend with highs near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
will return by Saturday afternoon, and a few models spit out a
few snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. With the variety of
solutions offered, opted to keep only chance POPs in the picture
Saturday night with lower values on Sunday. None of the guidance
features a well-organized system, so nuisance snow amounts of less
than an inch seem favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A band of light snow stretched from central Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin late this morning. The band will slowly lift
northward this afternoon and gradually decrease in intensity from
west to east. Visibility in the heavier snow band ranged from
around 1/4 mile to 1 1/2 miles. Think those visibilities will
continue before intensities decrease. Another round of snow is
expected tonight through Tuesday morning as an area of low
pressure moves from the Dakotas through the Upper Midwest. Wind
gusts will likely continue where the heaviest snow is located
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  18  -3  19 /  90  90   0   0
INL   0  11 -11  18 /  90  90  10   0
BRD   9  17  -9  19 /  90  80   0   0
HYR  13  23  -2  21 /  80  80  10   0
ASX  14  22   4  22 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018-019-021-025-026-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ020-
     034>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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